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OVERVIEW

4th of July Crypto: 70% Win Rate 🤯

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Independence Day Scorecard: 70% Win Rate 🤷

Curious how the crypto market performs on the Fourth of July (or as my UK friends call it, ‘Good Riddance Day’)? Here’s what the last ten Fourth of Julys tell us.🫵 

• Scorecard: 7 green Julys, 3 red. That’s a 70% hit rate-good, unless you were long in 2019, 2023, or the flaming -5.84 % of last year..

• Biggest pop: 2022’s +4.38 %.

• Ugliest face-plant: 2019’s -6.02 %.

• Streaks: four-year win run from 2015-2018, single crash in 2019, three more wins 2020-22, now two straight losses 2023-24.

• Averages: green years delivered +2.29%. Red years bled -4.30%. Overall mean? A measly +0.31%. Median sits at +1.58%, so half the time the move barely registers on the Richter.

• Volatility vibe: standard deviation clocks in around 3.39%.

Remember folks: things that go BOOM shouldn’t be held in your hand, or your wallet. 🧨 

SPONSORED
Bitcoin Depot: Insights from Q1 2025

Bitcoin Depot (Nasdaq: BTM) is the world’s largest Bitcoin ATM operator. With over 8,500 kiosks worldwide and over $3B in total transaction volume since 2016, their stock has seen over 300% growth this year, highlighting strong investor confidence in Bitcoin Depot’s industry leadership.

Here’s a snapshot of their Q1 2025 financials: 

• Revenue up 19% YoY to $164.2M

• Q1 net income up to $12.2M vs. net loss of $4.2M in Q4 2024

• Adjusted profits up 92% YoY to $33.1M

Their growth is driven by Bitcoin ATM usage, not Bitcoin’s price. They have historically generated revenue regardless of Bitcoin’s price swings. 

They’re also focused on a Bitcoin treasury strategy, giving investors additional exposure to Bitcoin’s potential growth trajectory and adding their name to a list of forward-looking companies riding the crypto adoption wave.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here. 

^{_{The above is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell a particular financial instrument. Bitcoin Depot is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Nothing contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Bitcoin Depot to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments}}

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP’s Weekly Chart Is Either A Big Tease Or A Big Squeeze 😖

From mid-April to now, price has been glued to the same stretch of highway. The Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen sit overhead like a pair of grumpy toll booths, so short- and medium-term crowd sentiment stays bearish by default. 🤦

Zoom out and the whole mess is still lounging above the Cloud, so the long-range bias refuses to flip negative. The Chikou Span keeps face-planting into last year’s candlestick bodies, providing another clear (but annoying) example of how they’re acting as resistance. 🛑

The Future Cloud - Two-Clouds Theory Gets Loud

The great Ichimoku analyst and author Manesh Patel’s discovered the Two Clouds Theory (well, that’s what I call it).

In a nutshell, it’s a condition that occurs when both the current Cloud’s (the Cloud above/below the current candlestick) Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B move in the same direction towards the future Cloud (the Cloud all the way to the right of the chart). The black box on the chart is what I’m talking about.

Patel said that big moves often occur around that date - which is next week for XRP. 📆

Oscillators Hint, Nudge, Wink

• Composite Index already hopped its fast MA (green average) and is eyeing the slow MA (yellow) next. One more crossover and momentum junkies will start tap-dancing.

• Detrended Price Oscillator is loitering at the zero line, the same stunt it pulled right before the November 2024 face-melter. A weekly close above zero would shove the market from “meh” to “move.”

Breakout Shopping List

• Weekly candle ≥ $2.52 - clears both Tenkan and Kijun in one shot.

• Composite Index > slow MA - confirms momentum isn’t a mirage.

• DPO > 0 - the loudest starter pistol on the chart.

XRP is a good placeholder and representative for the rest of the altcoin market. So when it moves, there’s a high probability of the rest of crypto to get off its ass and move. 🚀

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
ETH Transactions In Profit Or Loss? 🤔 

Nice little bounce yesterday with a return to $2,600 has hodlers wondering: how is ETH doing, exactly? 🤔 

Well, this stupidly long named metric can give us an idea. It’s the Ratio of Daily On-Chain Transaction Volume in Profit to Loss.  

That’s a mouthful that basically asks: for every dollar’s worth of ETH changing hands today, how much of it is smiling versus crying?

• Above 1 means the profit-takers are louder.

• Below 1 and ETH is in “ouch” territory.

• Time window: 53 weeks (close enough) from July 4, 2024 to July 3, 2025.

• Range: 0.64 (min, April 3, 2025) to 3.67 (max, May 8, 2025).

• Average: 1.21 - profit barely edges out pain on most days.

• Distribution: 62% of weeks printed a ratio > 1.8% cleared 2, one lonely spike rocketed past 3.

Quarter-By-Quarter Carnage

• Q3 2024 (July - September 2024): Greed spiked in mid-July, rolled into late-summer despair, then bounced by September 19, 2024.

• Q4 2024 (October - December 2024): November stuffed wallets like a Thanksgiving turkey that has a pigeon inside a duck inside a chicken inside the turkey. Late December ratios near 1.00 signaled holiday hangovers.

• Q1 2025 (January - March 2025): Started hot, ended limping. More break-even than breakout.

• Q2 2025 (April - June 2025): April capitulation, May euphoria - that May 8 spike almost doubled the next-best week. June bobbed around parity.

Cheat Codes From The Data

• Contrarian alarms - Ratios north of 1.5 often front-run local tops. May 8, 2025 is Exhibit A.

• Capitulation clues - Sub-0.7 prints are rare: August 1, 2024 and April 3, 2025. Those weeks screamed panic sell. 😱 

SPONSORED
Stocktoberfest 2025: Where Markets Meet the Coast

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✔️ Panels, workshops, and unfiltered discussions

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Come for the markets. Stay for the sunsets and steins. 🌅🍻

🎟️ Tickets moving fast → https://event.tixologi.com/event/5863

#Stocktoberfest25

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🔐 ICP vetKeys Lets Your Diary Live On-Chain Without Peeping Eyes

Verifiably encrypted keys mean canisters mint user-only secrets, enabling private chats, sealed bids, and dead-man switches. Nodes never see the whole key; browsers do the decrypting, keeping GDPR lawyers calm. Internet Computer.

⚡ Reactive Network Hooks Arbitrum, Automates Trades Before You Blink

Reactive Smart Contracts now fire on Arbitrum One, syncing across chains via Hyperlane and paying fees in REACT. Think millisecond stop-losses, AI-driven vault shifts, and cross-rollup arbitrage with zero ETH juggling. Reactive Network.

🤖 IoTeX Expands to AI, Wants Your Toaster’s Data for “Physical Intelligence”

Realms knowledge bases, Quicksilver live feeds, and an open economy put machines, sensors, and agents on the same tokenized payroll. Verified real-world data flows straight into AI models so robots stop hallucinating. Skynet may still arrive, but at least it’ll be open-source and fairly monetized. IoTeX.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🌐 SKALE Portal 4.1 Polishes the Bridge and Points You Right to the Fun

A revamped UI now surfaces tokens you already hold, remembers scroll position, and drops you into Sushi swaps or game worlds after bridging. Featured dApps sit front-and-center while a forum link begs for your hot takes. SKALE Network.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending Protocol News 🏦

🏛️ Bankers Love Programmable Money… Until Someone Mentions Refunds

At Future of Finance, Quant’s Gonçalo Lima reminded the crowd that shiny token rails still sit on creaky legacy pipes and regulators biting their nails. Everyone agreed interoperability is the endgame but freaked when DLT’s no-reversal feature collided with fat-finger reality. Quant.

🦄 Uniswap Smart Wallets Turn Two Clicks into One and Slash Gas

New wallets default to smart contracts, bundling approvals and swaps while prepping gas sponsorship and pay-with-any-token magic. Pectra’s EIP-5792 lets web users get the same one-tap joy if their wallet speaks the new standard. CEX UX excuses just melted like cheap NFTs in August - I mean when NFTs were still a thing that is. Uniswap.

⚙️ Mantle Swaps Optimism for ZK, EigenDA Handles the Receipts

If your “scalable” L2 still needs seven-day exits, Mantle just stole your pitch deck. The rollup cut gas with EigenDA, is testing OP Succinct for one-hour withdrawals, and plans a data bridge so auditors stop nagging. Over 200 slashed operators now guard blobs, pushing censorship resistance miles past the original 10-node club. Mantle.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🤖 The trillion-dollar turn: AI and robotics powering the next industrial revolution

🤯 Corporate crypto treasuries could worsen price crashes: Franklin Templeton

📈 Crypto market soars after better-than-expected US jobs report

🥴 ZKasino rug pull suspect arrested in United Arab Emirates

🧀 Crash covers interstate in boxes of mozzarella cheese

🏎️ NASCAR Heat 5 Xbox servers to close soon

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, AGIX, MIN, ZEC, XLM, INJ, ALGO, NEAR, AVAX, IMX, UMA, and LINK. 📋