- The Litepaper by Stocktwits
- Posts
- A Change In Trend For BTC Miners?
A Change In Trend For BTC Miners?
BTC analytics, Standard Chartered BTC & ETH trading desk, and in-game airdrops for shooter Shrapnel
Jonathan Morgan
June 21, 2024
OVERVIEW
A Change In Trend For BTC Miners?
The only thing bearish about crypto is the price action. Red days followed by red weeks and red months do suck. But let’s keep our perspective clear. 👓️
Here’s a reminder of how Bitcoin has historically performed post-halving.
2012 | 2016 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
3-months before | -61.09% | +166.47% | -16.54% |
30-days after | -1.81% | -11.02% | +8.10% |
90-days after | +85.51% | -5.00% | +29.09% |
6-months after | +66.39% | +38.17% | +83.26% |
12-months after | +259.97% | +283.49% | +562.18% |
It’s been barely two months since Bitcoin’s last halving, so keep that in mind as you navigate the red in crypto - in fact, expect red.
In today’s Litepaper, we’re looking at various on-chain analytics for Bitcoin miners and what could be a future trend.
Also on deck: Standard Chartered’s new BTC & ETH venture, and an upcoming in-game airdrop event for a Web3 Shooter on Epic Games. 📰
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:
And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Miners BTC Reserves Tank, Transactions Making Bank 🏦
$BTC miners are probably in one of the most interesting scenarios their business has seen in recent years. Never mind the institutional adoption of crypto, but Bitcoin’s blockchain itself has become a hub of NFT activity. 💨
Runes's NFT transactions are proving to be quite lucrative. We’ll examine those transactions, but first, let’s examine some interesting on-chain analytics data for Bitcoin.
Miner Reserves: They’re Selling
IntoTheBlock - BTC Held By Miners
Bitcoin miner reserves have dropped to 1.9 million BTC from 1.97 million BTC at the beginning of 2024. This dip screams one thing: miners are unloading their stash. IntoTheBlock's fancy algorithms track this stuff, so we know miners are feeling the heat.
No, really. They are feeling the heat. And some miners in Texas might get paid or threaten to shut down for a while. 🥵
Santiment - BTC Miner Reserves
Santiment's latest data shows Bitcoin miner reserves are at their lowest since June 2022, when BTC was below $20,000. ⤵️
Mining Costs: A Rollercoaster Ride
MacroMicro - Average Mining Costs
Miners are also contending with crazy swings in their costs. A four-year high of $90,816 hit on May 2, 2024. In other words, the average cost to mine a single $BTC that day was roughly $91k. Ouch.
Fast-forward to today, and there’s been a dramatic drop. It’s profitable again for the miners at $45,181. 👍️
Transaction Trends: The Runes Take Over
Dune Analytics - Instriptions, Runes, Ordinals (BRC20)
Dune Analytics shows Runes transactions dominate Bitcoin's network, accounting for 60% of transactions over the past month. Regular transactions are just 33% of daily activity.
Runes have generated 2,522 BTC in fees. 🤯
IntoTheBlock’s data shows that miners have been getting more of their income from transaction fees since November 2023. Could this be the start of a new trend for miners?
That’s something we’ll have to watch closely. And definitely something we’ll look at in the quarterly reports from public miners like $MARA, $RIOT, and others.
In the short term, as long as Runes remains popular, transaction fees will continue to be a moneymaker. ⛏️
