OVERVIEW

April's Purge Before May's Surge

Red everywhere. That’s not hard to believe when you consider nearly $350 million long positions have been liquidated over the past 24 hours. Ouch. 🟥

In today’s Litepaper: April 2024's market turmoil the worst since the FTX fiasco, Monero's dramatic downfall, and a peek at Bitcoin's historical May maneuvers.

Plus, catch the latest on Stocktwits' sentiment shifts, crypto titans Roger Ver and Changpeng Zhao's latest rumbles, and Gary's Capitol Hill controversy stirring up a storm. 📰

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:

BITCOIN
April 2024: Worst Month Since FTX 😱

It’s 1650 EST as I’m writing this, so unless something insane happens between now and the daily close (which is possible), April 2024 will only be the fourth April to close in the red and the worst monthly candlestick since FTX collapsed in November 2022. 🤯

And if it keeps dropping, it might end up as the worst April in Bitcoin’s history. 😲

Bitcoin’s sentiment is clearly in the tank, with an ugly rating of bearish (41). And it’s clear people are talking about how ugly it looks out there today because the message volume has spiked to high (58).

However, some analysts and traders keep a close eye on the message volume because it shows engagement, and if all of a sudden, Bitcoin does a 180-degree turn in price action - you can bet your butt that a bunch of people will notice. ⚠️

BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance In May 📜

Let’s examine some cold, hard facts about how $BTC historically performs in May and how the month of May compares to other months.

• Bitcoin has closed May in the green 7 times.

• Bitcoin has closed May in the red 6 times.

• May ranks third in terms of average gains, with a percentage of 50.62%, following November (74.03%) and April (57.87%).

• May finds itself in the middle of the pack when it comes to average losses, placing fifth with -14.46%, better than months like August, March, and June but worse than April and July.

• May also holds the fourth spot in overall average performance, with a 20.58%, outpaced by April, November, and October.

NEWS
Titans in Turmoil: Roger Ver and Changpeng Zhao 🚓

Today has been a double whammy of big-name crypto personalities facing the heavy hand of U.S. regulators. 👮‍♂️

Roger Ver: The Fall of 'Bitcoin Jesus'

Bitcoin 'Jesus' Roger Ver, an early cryptocurrency advocate, faces severe allegations from the U.S. Department of Justice. He's charged with mail fraud, tax evasion, and filing false tax returns. Arrested in Spain, Ver now faces extradition to the United States, where he will stand trial. ✈️

The indictment reveals that since 2011, Ver acquired substantial BTC holdings through his businesses, MemoryDealers and Agilestar. Despite renouncing his U.S. citizenship in 2014, Ver was still obligated to report and pay taxes on his global assets, including an estimated 131,000 bitcoins. Allegedly, Ver provided misleading information to legal and tax professionals, significantly underreporting his assets and evading an "exit tax" on these capital gains.

By 2017, Ver allegedly controlled about 70,000 bitcoins, which he sold for around $240 million. However, he failed to report or pay taxes on these transactions, leading to a purported IRS loss of at least $48 million. 🚔

Changpeng Zhao Sentenced To Four Months

CZ was sentenced to four months in prison today after pleading guilty to charges related to money laundering. This outcome culminates a multiyear U.S. investigation into Binance's operations and compliance with anti-money laundering laws.

Under Zhao's leadership, Binance was accused of bypassing the Bank Secrecy Act requirements, facilitating transactions linked to criminal activities, and interacting with individuals in sanctioned jurisdictions. In a settlement that included stepping down as CEO, Zhao agreed to a plea deal significantly lighter than the potential three-year incarceration initially sought by prosecutors. 🚨

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Moner-NOOOooooooo 🔻

I feel like $XMR was at a party, got stupidly drunk, and then one of his buddies says, “Yo Monero, 10 bucks says you’re so dumb that if I push you over, you’ll miss the floor.” 🎰

Monero accepted the challenge with a noble, “Hold. My. Beer.”

This is one of the ugliest crypto charts out there. Privacy coins, in general, look very, very ugly. Monero hit new 8-year lows against $BTC, and it’s suffered eight consecutive months in the red. 

BUT…

Unless something dramatically stupidly horrible happens, Monero might get its first green monthly close in eight months against Bitcoin. 🙏

STOCKTWITS
Stocktwits Sentiment Data 🎭

How are Stocktwits users feeling about some of the major altcoins today? Let’s take a look. 👀

The sentiment score for $DOGE a week ago was neutral (51). Yesterday's sentiment score for DOGE was neutral (51). Today's sentiment score for DOGE, despite hitting new 30-day lows, is dogearmy-don’t-give-a-f*ck bullish (60).

Similarly, the message volume has ticked higher. One week ago, it was low (38); yesterday, it ticked a little higher to 40; today, it has moved into neutral (47).

Tezos’ sentiment and message volume data are very interesting. Both have big shifts in their scores. $XTZ’s sentiment score yesterday was a nice bullish (54) rating, but today it has tanked to bearish (33).

The message volume has moved from a rating of normal (52) to extremely high (75). And with just one look at the stream, you’ll see a wave of very bearish outlooks and predictions. 🔴

NEWS
Gary Just Pissed Off The Chair Of The House Fin. Serv. Committee 😤

The Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee just posted this on X today:

What’s the fuss about? In yesterday’s Litepaper, we reviewed some of Consensys' releases regarding the SEC’s activity with $ETH.

The TL;DR version: The SEC started investigating Ethereum as a security in March 2023. Fast-forward to April 18, 2023, and Gensler is testifying in front of the House Financial Services Committee and asked about Ethereum’s status. His non-answers about ETH’s security status have returned to haunt Gensler.

McHenry all but calls out SEC Chair Gensler as a liar at the beginning of his post: “Just months after a federal judge sanctioned SEC enforcement lawyers for lying to the court, new evidence shows Chair Gensler himself misled Congress. In testimony to the Financial Services Committee last April, Chair Gensler refused to answer questions regarding the SEC's classification of Ether. New court filings show this was an intentional attempt to misrepresent the Commission's position.”

We’ll keep an eye on how things progress. 👁️

STOCKTWITS “CHART ART”
Bitcoin ETF Buyers Remain In The Red 💔

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NEWS
Crypto News In Three Sentences 📰

📉 Solana's Sluggish Stride. Despite updates aimed at boosting performance, Solana is caught in a congestion crisis and market slump, with technical indicators suggesting it might be time to hit the sell button. Recent tweaks have fallen short of resolving ongoing network delays, pushing transaction failure rates to an alarming 65.75%. From DailyCoin.

💹 BlackRock's Token Triumph. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has swelled to $375 million, seizing nearly 30% of the tokenized Treasury market and eclipsing Franklin Templeton, all within six weeks. BlackRock’s aggressive push into blockchain-based assets could radically shift how institutional capital interacts with digital finance. More from CoinDesk.

💸 Justin Sun's Depeg Dilemma. Justin Sun's decentralized stablecoin (lol) USDD has slipped off its dollar peg again, trading at $0.97. With associated projects like Poloniex and TUSD also facing stability snags, Sun’s financial empire is showing cracks that could deter investor confidence. Protos has more.

💰 Grayscale's Strategic Shuffle. Grayscale has transferred a hefty 4010 BTC, worth about $245 million, to Coinbase. This significant asset movement aligns with shifts in market sentiment and reflects ongoing strategic adjustments in response to competitive pressures within the Bitcoin ETF space. From CoinSpeaker.

🔒 Crypto Wallets Wave Goodbye to the U.S. Facing mounting regulatory pressures, Wasabi and Phoenix wallets have ceased operations for U.S. customers, signaling a broader retreat from stringent oversight. This exodus follows enforcement actions against other crypto services. As regulations tighten, the landscape for cryptocurrency services in the U.S. is rapidly transforming, prompting significant shifts in how crypto businesses operate within the country. More from Forkast.

Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

💲 Curve DAO crashes 40% over 30 Days in rocky market downturn

🤖 Discover's AI use, synapse's bankruptcy: top tech news for April 2024

⛏️ Bitcoin miners left scratching their heads following halving event with hashrates shooting through the roof

🎮 Final Fantasy maker Square Enix takes $140 million hit in ‘content abandonment losses’ as it revises game pipeline

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