OVERVIEW

Bitcoin’s Halving Is A Few Hours Away 🏃

We’re hours away from the halving, and things are looking green across the screen. 🟩

Because of the halving, a big focus is on support and resistance. We’re starting off today’s Litepaper with a Technically Speaking on Render, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Mina Protocol.

Also on deck: a huge debt tsunami, Justin Sun and the SEC have more problems, Telegram NFTs, and a guilty Mango Market hacker.

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap: 

And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:

ANALYSIS
The Halvening - What Has Happened Before

Reposting this because we’re hours away from the halving.

Bitcoin’s next halving is estimated to occur at 9 PM EST. 🚀

Here’s a link to the BTC Halving Countdown.

How has Bitcoin behaved during its past halvings? Let’s look:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technically Speaking - April 19, 2024

The halving is hours away, and there are two things on everyone’s mind: support and resistance. Let’s look at some levels.

Resistance levels are represented by the red bars on the charts, while the support levels are represented by the green bars.

Cardano ($ADA)

From a time cycle perspective, there’s a strong chance the current move lower may reverse. Gann’s seven-week cycle and the apex of the descending triangle occur at the end of this week and the beginning of the next.

Additionally, the weekly Composite Index (not shown) is at a historical support level.

And even though Cardano’s spent some time in the suck zone - look at the Stocktwits Sentiment score, it’s turned bullish. For some traders and analysts, that signals price is about to make a big turnaround.

Resistance 1: $0.520 to $0.550, Resistance 2: $0.603

Support 1: $0.465, Support 2: $0.398

Mina Protocol ($MINA)

Similar to Cardano’s weekly chart, MINA is close to ending its own seven-week cycle. However, only the daily chart (not shown), there was a Kumo Twist two days ago. For those not in the know, Kumo Twists can be an early warning sign that a change in the trend may occur - especially if that instrument has been moving strongly into the Kumo Twist.

For MINA’s weekly chart, its Composite Index and Detrended Price Oscillator are both at all-time lows.

Resistance 1: $0.845, Resistance 2: $1.04

Support 1: $0.789, Support 2: $0.648

Render ($RNDR)

The daily Composite Index is worth watching closely because it’s crossed above its fast and slow-moving averages and is very close to breaking out above the upper trend line of a triangle. On the weekly chart (not shown), there is a hidden bullish divergence between the candlestick chart and the Composite Index.

Stocktwits Sentiment scores are slowly ticking higher, but the Message Volume remains muted—it probably won’t remain that way if it begins to pamp a little.

Resistance 1: $9.80, Resistance 2: $10.87

Support 1: $7.64, Support 2: $6.65

Dogecoin ($DOGE)

Two big triggers the bulls are looking for on the daily chart: the Composite Index crossing and closing above its fast and slow moving averages, and the Detrended Price Oscillator closing above the zero line.

Bulls have also taken notice of the Stocktwits Sentiment score ticking up.

Resistance 1: $0.1708, Resistance 2: $0.2045

Support 1: $0.1421, Support 2: $0.1232

NEWS
Trillion-Dollar Debt Tsunami 🌊

A whopping $930 billion worth of commercial real estate debt is coming due, and guess what? The regional banks handling these loans might just be wishing for a time machine right now. 🏦

Thanks to a charming mix of remote work and a surplus of office spaces nobody really wants, these loans are maturing at rates that would make a loan shark blush. Desmond Lachman, formerly of the IMF and now a fortune teller at the American Enterprise Institute, paints a grim picture.

It’s not his first rodeo, given last year's banking shenanigans centered around Silicon Valley Bank, which had the Fed playing superhero. Now, the stage is set for an encore, with smaller banks finding themselves in deep waters.

Why? Because a staggering 18% of their portfolios are tied up in these ticking time bombs of commercial property loans. As vacancies soar and buildings sell for peanuts, the specter of bank failures looms large. A National Bureau of Economic Research study speculates that about 400 small—to medium-sized banks could go kaput over the next few years.

Will the Fed come to their rescue? Probably not. There’s too big to fail and too small to save. 🎢

NEWS
Justin Suns Balls In SEC’s Vice 🗜️

Looks like Justin Sun's global travels might just land him in hot water with the SEC. The agency amped up its complaint against Tron ($TRX) and Sun, making a case that Sun’s frequent flyer miles were not just for sightseeing but were critical to selling what they call unregistered securities. 🌍

Starting in 2017 and through 2019, Sun graced the U.S. with his presence for extended stays, hitting up spots like New York City, Boston, and San Francisco. During these star-spangled visits, he wasn’t just enjoying the local cuisine; he was busy promoting the Tron ecosystem and might have crossed a line or two, according to the SEC.

This update to the SEC’s complaint throws a wrench into Sun's legal team’s previous narrative that the U.S. regulators were reaching beyond their jurisdiction. The heart of the issue? Sun’s supposed pitch that holding TRX would net investors some sweet BTT tokens—a move the SEC is framing as a tie-up meant to boost both digital assets under the U.S. regulatory radar. 🎬

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NFTs
Telegram's Next Big Bet: Turning Emojis into NFT Gold 🪙

Emojis and stickers are about to become the newest hot commodities on the blockchain. 🚀

Pavel Durov, Telegram's head honcho, dropped this bomb at Token2049 in Dubai. He plans to tokenize those tiny digital expressions of our deepest feelings as NFTs.

After turning usernames and phone numbers into a lucrative sideshow, Telegram's set its sights on your sticker collection. The $TON blockchain will be the stage for this next act of tokenization.🌴

NEWS
Mango Market Manipulation Meets Justice 🚨

Guess who’s getting a timeout? Avraham Eisenberg, the trader who thought turning Mango Markets into his personal piggy bank was a smart move, just got a reality check from the U.S. justice system. 🤑 

He managed to dupe the $SOL-based DeFi platform with some high-stakes crypto maneuvers, making off with $110 million before saying, "Oops, my bad."

Calling his exploits a "legal trading strategy," Eisenberg might have forgotten to check the part of the law where manipulation and fraud are generally frowned upon.

Eisenberg’s now penciled in for a sentencing rendezvous on July 29. 🎩

Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

💥 Two years after blowing up his own fund, Zhu Su offers advice to $2B Ethena

👨‍💼 Congressman discloses Bitcoin purchase a day before the halving

🐳 Bitcoin whales bought $1.2B BTC amid the price dip, fueling the quick rebound

💣 DeFi explodes in Q1 2024, led by Ethereum liquid staking

😤 IRS unveils form your broker may send next year to report your crypto moves

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