OVERVIEW

Breakouts Need Friends 🫂

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Coinbase Just Got 35M XRP, But Retail Already Left The Building 🏗️

Nothing says Happy Hump Day like an alert from Whale Alert:

That 35 million XRP transfer into Coinbase set off the usual doom-posting, but the on-chain flows tell a more nuanced, and honestly weirder, story. 📔 

Active Addresses: Retail’s Gone Missing

• 30-day active wallets peaked at 1.3M in June/July, but now sit at 549k as of Sept 2.

• That’s a straight bleed from 576k just a week earlier.

• Interpretation: retail has been slipping out the back door while whales shuffle size. This transfer hits at the exact moment engagement is weakest, which doesn’t scream bullish. 😐️ 

Transactions: Flatline Until the Crash

• Daily counts hung between 600k-700k through late August, with Sept 2 printing 650k.

• Sept 3 cratered to 437k, a -32% collapse overnight.

• That is the “holy shite” datapoint: one friggin whale move literally knocked the chain’s baseline rhythm off-kilter. ⚖️ 

Exchange Inflows: Size Isn’t Everything

• Daily inflows average 24M XRP, so the 35M transfer looks big but not unprecedented.

• In fact, there were 16 days in July-Aug with inflows >35M, including 100M on Aug 1, 78M on Jul 17, and 70M on Aug 28.

• That Aug 28 print is the real outlier (z-score +2.9), showing exchanges were already getting loaded up ahead of the Coinbase whale. 🏋️ 

Exchange Flow Balance: Desk Games

• Sept 1: -4.2M net outflow. Sept 2: -4.8M net outflow. Negative balances usually hint at coins leaving exchanges (bullish), but pair that with giant inflows and you get whiplash.

• End of August saw swings from -9M (Aug 29) to +4.7M (Aug 31). Not random retail, more like coordinated desks shuffling liquidity. 🤽 

My Read

The 35M XRP transfer lands after a 70M inflow on Aug 28, during a period where retail wallets are vanishing and exchange balances have been yo-yoing.

That makes it less of a “panic dump” and more of a pre-planned liquidity rotation. Still, the Sept 3 collapse in transactions shows how fragile XRP’s activity is - one big move and the chain’s heart skips a beat.

Short-term lean? Bearish pressure from whales using Coinbase as a liquidity sink. Long-term, the continued net outflows suggest rotation rather than outright dumping. Either way, retail’s absence means price action will follow the whales, not the crowd. 🐷

A

Keep This Stock Ticker on Your Watchlist

They’re a private company, but Pacaso just reserved the Nasdaq ticker “$PCSO.”

No surprise the same firms that backed Uber, eBay, and Venmo already invested in Pacaso. What is unique is Pacaso is giving the same opportunity to everyday investors. And 10,000+ people have already joined them.

Created a former Zillow exec who sold his first venture for $120M, Pacaso brings co-ownership to the $1.3T vacation home industry.

They’ve generated $1B+ worth of luxury home transactions across 2,000+ owners. That’s good for more than $110M in gross profit since inception, including 41% YoY growth last year alone.

And you can join them today for just $2.90/share. But don’t wait too long. Invest in Pacaso before the opportunity ends September 18.

Invest While You Still Can

_{Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.}

NEWS
Technically Speaking: ADA, XMR, and SEI Daily Ichimoku Outlook 📈

Look at any daily crypto chart, and it’s probably going to look like it’s own version of Cardano’s, Monero’s, or Sei’s. 👀

Cardano (ADA)

ADA’s daily chart is basically flashing “pay attention.”

The Composite Index closing above its moving averages matters, but the real signal is the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) pushing above zero. That’s the one that unlocks follow-through momentum.

The Chikou Span has to stay above candle bodies, no cheating. Watch Sept 6-8 for acceleration - both Senkou Span A and B are curling higher into a thin cloud. ☁️

Monero (XMR)

XMR is stuck below the Cloud, which is textbook bearish. But aggressive Ichimoku traders are watching for an early long trigger.

Requirements: daily close above $275.96 (that clears Tenkan-Sen and puts Chikou Span over candle bodies). Composite Index and DPO are already supportive, giving any early aggressive longs a short-term lift.

If it plays out, next resistance sits at the top of the Cloud around $302. TL;DR: limited upside unless bulls prove it. 🧠

Sei (SEI)

SEI’s bouncing off Cloud support, but the chart’s a coin flip.

Bulls get an easy breakout shot if price closes above $0.32 - the Cloud is thinning until late September. But bears have a tasty setup too.

A close under the Cloud with Chikou confirmation would trigger an “Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout.” That’s not just bearish, that’s “duck and cover” bearish. Either way, September charts love humiliating traders. 🪙

Market Take

Most crypto charts rhyme with one of these three setups. Bull flags are everywhere, but September usually hates you. It’s Bitcoin’s worst performing month, historically.

So, depending on you want to look at it, Bitcoin’s weakest month is bearish for BTC and the whole crypto market. OR, it’s bearish for BTC, but that means the altcoin market has a fantastic opportunity to blow past BTC for a while.

Let’s see what happens. 👓️

NEWS
Galaxy Digital Shares Tokenized On Solana 😱

Galaxy Digital. CEO Mike Novogratz jumped on X to crow that his firm is “the first Nasdaq‑listed company to tokenize its equity on a major blockchain”. ⛓️ 

Cool milestone - but it’s not the first Nasdaq listed company to tokenize on a public blockchain.

Overstock.com beat them to the punch in 2016 when it issued a small amount of preferred stock as a blockchain security and migrated to the tZERO blockchain.

I mean, he’s probably correct because he used the modifier/adjective ‘major’ to specify what kind of blockchain. And Solana is definitely a major blockchain. Ya, I’m being picky, but claiming first for something so profound needs context.

First to tokenize on a blockchain? No. First to tokenize on a major one? You betcha.

Marketing slogans aside, tokenizing a Nasdaq entity like Galaxy Digital on Solana is still a yuge deal. 👍️ 

NEWS
Tron Just Pumped Its TRX Stash. Again. 🤦

Tron Inc. added 312.5 million more TRX to its treasury - about $110 million worth - taking its stash past $220 millioncoin. Bravemorning Limited, its biggest shareholder, exercised warrants and now own 86.6% of the company. 🤦 

Why stop at “majority” when you can be a monopoly? CEO Rich Miller bragged about having the “largest publicly disclosed” TRX. Earlier, the company had lined up a $210 million securities purchase, so this isn’t a brand‑new gamble.

On the network side, Justin Sun pushed through a 60% fee cut - the biggest reduction since launch. That move pumped daily active users above 2.5 million, even overtaking BNB Chain and Solana.

Loading up on your own token is risky. Will the market reward the pamp - or call it a dumpster fire? Watch and see. 👀 

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

💵 Pump.fun challenges Twitch with creator payout surge

Trio of men use slingshot to make cornhole shot from 151 feet

🤯 Trump family's new venture opens 33% higher in Nasdaq debut

📺️ Nintendo Switch gamers treated to 2 classic free games

🤖 Physical AI uses both sight and touch to manipulate objects like a human

🏘️ Real Estate lender Trimont taps JPMorgan’s blockchain to automate loan payments

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋