OVERVIEW

‘Diamond Hands’ Now Diagnosed as Psychological Disorder 💎 

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

💵 Paxos CEO Begs Congress to Not Let the Dollar Get Eaten by Stablecoins

Charles Cascarilla showed up to Congress to make the case for regulated stablecoins, warning that if the U.S. doesn’t act fast, the dollar might get dunked on by tokenized gold or a Chinese CBDC. He wants clear regulations, reciprocity for foreign issuers, and stablecoin oversight that doesn’t require an Ivy League law degree to understand. Lawmakers nodded along, likely still trying to figure out the difference between PayPal’s $PYUSD.X ( ▼ 0.02% ) and Monopoly money. Paxos.

📈 Franklin Templeton Throws Its Hat Into the Solana ETF Circus

Franklin Templeton, managing a casual $1.5 trillion, just filed for a $SOL.X ( ▼ 2.38% ) ETF. With Litecoin, Dogecoin, and now Solana ETFs getting green-lit odds, it’s clear the SEC is handing out approvals like Oprah giving away cars. TheBlock.

💥 European Banking System Goes Down, But Sure, Let’s Trust Them With a Digital Euro

The European Central Bank’s real-time payment system crashed for hours, proving once again that institutions can’t even keep the basics running. Lawmakers are now questioning how the ECB plans to handle a digital euro when their infrastructure collapses faster than confidence in the banking sector. Meanwhile, ECB board members are whining that Trump’s stablecoin push is making them look bad. TheDailyHODL.

🐢 Ethereum Struggles to Keep Up While Bitcoin Runs Laps

Bitcoin rebounded 3% after inflation data gave traders a reason to stop panicking, but Ethereum barely moved because, well, Ethereum. Devs finally achieved “finality” on the Holesky testnet, but investors still have to wait months for the Pectra upgrade while ETH price action remains as exciting as watching paint dry. Analysts predict $ETH.X ( ▼ 1.93% ) could hit $7K this year—assuming, of course, no delays, no technical issues, and no investor impatience, which means, yeah, good luck with that. Decrypt.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Could We Go Lower? 🙏 

I’m all about keeping things real. Historically, when Bitcoin is in an expansion phase, pullbacks between -30% and -40% are normal. 🧠 

From the all-time high, a -30% drop would put $BTC.X ( ▼ 1.01% ) right on the 61.8% ($75k value area) line of the Fibonacci Channel on the chart above. The 61.8% Fib level is exactly where Bitcoin found its bottom in 2024.

But if BTC were to tackle a -40% drop from the ATH, then that puts it at the very bottom of the Fib channel in the $65k value area. And just like the 61.8% Fib level, the bottom of the Fib channel is where Bitcoin support in late 2022 and gain in the Fall of 2023.

So the answer is yes, we could see Bitcoin and the broader crypto market keep going lower.

But here’s something to keep in mind: as more and more ‘big money’ has entered Bitcoin and crypto, the size and range of the retracements have gotten smaller. So keep those eyes peeled. 👀 

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