Dump-tember Cometh: A Seasonal Tradition Of Bags Being Burned đŸ”„

Nothing says fun like a longform statistical autopsy of the worst month in crypto. Buckle up.

Author

Jonathan Morgan
August 29, 2025

Presented by

OVERVIEW

Dump-tember Cometh: A Seasonal Tradition Of Bags Being Burned đŸ”„

September has a reputation in crypto, and not the good kind. đŸ˜¶ 

It’s the month traders whisper about like it’s Voldemort, the one that reliably turns “diamond hands” into dust. So today’s Litepaper ditches the usual format for a full data dive into how some of the majors (BTC, ETH, LINK, XRP, ADA) have historically fared in this cursed month.

Spoiler: for most coins, September is where portfolios go to die. For a couple outliers, it’s weirdly
 well not a death sentence like the others.

Either way, we’re leaning into the numbers and raw data because nothing says fun like a longform statistical autopsy of the worst month in crypto.

đŸ„ł Oh, and have a great and safe Labor Day Weekend! đŸ„ł

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin - September. Is. The. Worst. Month. Ever. 😠

Historical September Scorecard

  • Average return -3.92%, median -3.10%

  • Best September 2012 +22.0 %

  • Worst September 2011 -37.3% - F.U. Mt. Gox.

  • September finishes 12th out of 12, the calendar’s basement.

  • Absolute worst month, no contest.

  • 6 green Septembers, 9 red - 40% win rate.

  • Longest red streak? Six straight Septembers from 2017 to 2022. Brutal.

Fact Snacks

  • Bear market Septembers (2011, 2014, 2018) all carved double-digit losses - seasonality here looks like a bear’s favorite chew toy.

  • Halving years are the exception: +6.99% average in 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024.

  • Volatility is muted compared to August, which means you don’t even get the thrill of swings - just a slow, persistent, evil, evil bleed.

  • Macro spillovers matter more: equities’ September rebalancing tends to drag Bitcoin down with it.

  • If you had dumped every September since 2010 and bought back in October, your overall returns wouldn’t just be better, they’d be more than double (+112%).

In A Nutshell

  • September is the graveyard of Bitcoin months - statistically the worst.

  • Green Septembers exist, but they’re rare outliers, and none were game-changers.

  • Compared to August, it’s more consistent in its misery - less volatility, more steady losses.

  • If August warns you, September buries you. History’s verdict: step aside, wait for October’s resurrection.

Date Range For This Analysis: August 2010 - August 20215

SPONSORED
Grow your wealth with daily earnings.

Nexo’s Flexible Savings lets you grow your digital assets while keeping them available to use, access, or move at any time.

Why choose Nexo’s Flexible Savings:

  • Earn up to 14% annual interest, paid daily

  • Access competitive yields on BTC, ETH, USDC, and more

  • Withdraw anytime, no penalties or lockups

  • Keep earning while you hold, rebalance, or trade

Since 2019, Nexo has paid over $1 billion in interest, helping clients build crypto wealth with confidence.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

 Disclaimer: Nexo services are currently unavailable in the US.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum - September Sucks More Than August đŸ„č

Historical September Scorecard

  • Average return -6.53%, median -12.54%

  • Best September 2016 +14.4%

  • Worst September 2017 -21.7%

  • 11th out of 12, only June saves it from rock bottom.

  • 4 green Septembers, 5 red - 44% win rate.

  • Longest red streak: three years straight (2020-2022).

Fact Snacks

  • September’s returns show a -0.47 correlation with full-year returns - bad Septembers often foreshadow strong full years. Counterintuitive, but historically consistent. This is something you’ll see with the other tickers we’re looking at today.

  • 2020 DeFi Summer hype died with a September dump - liquidity drained, fees spiked, and ETH bled.

  • Skip-September every year and your returns for ETH are about +98% higher.

  • Avoiding September nearly doubles long-term returns. Numbers don’t lie.

In A Nutshell

  • September is ETH’s second-worst month, only June does worse.

  • The median is twice as ugly as the average - red months hit much harder than green ones heal.

  • Upgrades and hype cycles (DAO fork, Merge, DeFi Summer) don’t save September, they usually make it worse.

Date Range For This Analysis: March 2016 - August 2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP - September Is, Surprisingly, Not That Bad. Not That Good, Either, But Not Bad. đŸ‘ïž

Historical September Scorecard

  • Average return +9.55%, median +0.15%

  • Best September 2018 +73.9%

  • Worst September 2017 -22.9%

  • 7th out of 12 - dead middle.

  • 5 green Septembers, 5 red - 50% win rate. Pure coin flip.

  • Red streak: three in a row from 2019-2021.

  • Green streak: three straight from 2022-2024, powered by SEC case momentum.

Fact Snacks

  • September’s returns carry a -0.40 correlation with full-year performance - bad Septembers often front-run strong years.

  • Enterprise timing matters: Ripple tends to roll out partnerships and product news in September during fintech conference season, aligning with TradFi’s Q4 planning.

  • XRP punishes seasonal skeptics - avoiding September erases the jackpot years. Unlike BTC and ETH, skipping September for XRP would yield a -41% return. Ouch.

In A Nutshell

  • September isn’t XRP’s graveyard like it is for BTC/ETH.

  • Negative correlation suggests September pain is often the setup for full-year gain.

  • For XRP, September isn’t a month to dodge - it’s just something you have to suffer through. đŸ˜± 

Date Range For This Analysis: February 2015 - August 2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano - September Just Sucks đŸ˜ïž

Historical September Scorecard

  • Average return -9.34%, median -13.2%

  • Best September 2024 +8.2%

  • Worst September 2021 -23.6%

  • 11th out of 12 - only June is worse.

  • 1 (lol) green September, 6 red - a grim 14% win rate.

  • Longest red streak: six years straight (2018-2023).

  • Let me repeat that: ADA closed September in the red each year from 2018 to 2023.

  • Finally snapped green in 2024, but history’s clear: September almost always punishes ADA holders.

Fact Snacks

  • September shows a -0.54 correlation with full-year returns - and the pattern continues for Cardano and a good chunk of the altcoin market: brutal Septembers often precede strong overall years.

  • Skip-September every year: +150% - about 108 % better than HODL.

In A Nutshell

  • September is ADA’s seasonal graveyard - consistent red, even when milestones land.

  • Fork launches don’t save it; they’ve historically worsened the slump.

  • The only green September (2024) barely cracked +8%.

  • Skipping September doubles long-term gains.

Date Range For This Analysis: December 2017 - August 2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Chainlink - September Is The Third Worst Month 📆

Historical September Scorecard

  • Average return +1.96%, median 0.0%

  • Best September 2023 +39.3%

  • Worst September 2020 -36.7%

  • 10th out of 12, firmly bottom tier.

  • 3 green Septembers, 4 red - 43% win rate.

  • Red streak: three straight Septembers from 2019 to 2021.

  • Green streak: three straight Septembers from 2022 to 2024.

Fact Snacks

  • September shows a -0.51 correlation with full-year returns - bad Septembers often precede good years.

  • Enterprise calendar effect matters: partnerships and integrations often drop in September conference season, tying LINK’s gains to TradFi decision-making.

  • Unlike BTC and ETH, skipping September doesn’t change the game much - skipping every September yields a marginal +3.3% gain.

In A Nutshell

  • September isn’t a total graveyard for LINK, but it’s inconsistent and stressful.

  • Streaks flip between multi-year red and green, proving it plays favorites.

  • Enterprise/DeFi narratives have outsized impact here - September moves when headlines line up with conference season.

Date Range For This Analysis: March 2018 - August 2025

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

Get In Touch 📬

Follow our social channels for great, real-time content on Stocktwits and Twitter. And check out our YouTube channel for in-depth video content! đŸ“Č

Email me (Jonathan Morgan) your feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧

Want to sponsor this newsletter and reach hundreds of thousands of crypto enthusiasts? Reach us here. 👍

Terms & Conditions 📝

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋