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OVERVIEW

Everyone’s Waiting For Someone Else To Blink 👀

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

NEWS
Regulators Role-Playing As Hackathon Judges 🕵️ 

The Treasury Department has cracked open the suggestion box for the GENIUS Act, the shiny new stablecoin law that came out of Mordor on the Potomac last month. They’re fishing for “innovative methods” to catch money launderers and scammers in digital assets. 🦹 

Translation: if you’ve got thoughts on APIs, AI, digital IDs, or blockchain monitoring, they want your two cents by October 17. 

Let’s unpack what they’re after:

• APIs - Automated pipes that can shuttle transaction data between compliance tools.

• AI - The usual buzzword, but here it means scanning mountains of blockchain and off-chain data to flag sketchy activity faster than your compliance intern.

• Digital Identity - Portable IDs, biometrics, or anything else that proves “yes, this wallet belongs to an actual person and not Chad’s Raspberry Pi in his garage.”

• Blockchain Monitoring - Watching the public ledgers like a hawk, tracing funds through mixers, and pretending cluster analysis is foolproof.

The GENIUS Act requires Treasury to turn all this feedback into a report for Congress and maybe some new rules. They’ll weigh things like privacy, cybersecurity risks, costs for banks, and whether the tools actually work or just make vendors rich.

If you’ve got ideas on how to catch North Korean hackers or drug cartels without strangling DeFi, now’s your chance to put them on the record. 🫵 

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
HODL Waves Say Supply Is Aging. Prices like that. 😉 

Six months of HODL Waves on SOL, XRP, BTC, and ETH point to the same boring, beautiful truth - coins keep aging while tourists wandered off. Young supply thinned. Old supply fattened. That’s supply tightening, which tends to make sellers less brave and breakouts more violent when demand shows up. 📈

TL;DR

• Across Feb 17 to Aug 16, older bands grew 10-15% while young bands fell across all four majors.

• BTC and ETH sit in the mature club - old supply 65-70% - which fits their consolidation and grind higher.

• XRP looks ancient - old supply 85-90% - while SOL is catching up near 55% old supply with improving conviction.

Quick refresher - HODL Waves

Colored bands show how long coins sat still. Warm colors are young coins under 6 months. Cool colors are older coins over 6 months.

When cool bands grow, sellers dry up. When warm bands dominate, tops get wobbly.

SOL - aging up, conviction rising

• Young supply down 10 pts as coins matured. Meme froth cooled, conviction stayed.

• Supply keeps tightening. If price can clear the sticky $200 area, a sprint to the $264 pocket opens up. Retail froth can still rug sentiment, so watch funding and perp skew.

• SOL’s curve is moving the right way for a real trend leg if resistance gives. XRP looks like it needs a catalyst bigger than tweets.

XRP - the museum piece

• Young supply basically halved. Old money rules the float.

• Retail spikes popped address activity and realized cap for a minute, then faded. Profitability cooled since January.

• Float looks locked. That’s durable on dumps but brutal on breakouts without fresh demand. If retail chills, volatility snaps back quick.

BTC - strong hands at high prices

• Young coins matured and didn’t rush to sell into the $100k-110k range. ETF flows soaked distribution, institutions did their job.

• Profit-taking looks measured. Long-term holders stayed stubborn.

• As old supply creeps up, upside pressure builds. A clean momentum reset could tag $130k if demand rotates back in. If retail apathy lingers, expect slow chop that grinds shorts.

ETH - maturing into strength

• Coins aged while price marched toward all-time highs. Staking stayed sticky even through drawdowns - but let’s see what this looks like as the supply unlocks (there’s a record number of people unstaking and in line to GTFO).

• Leverage climbed across majors, ETH included. OI (open interest) ballooned, so swings got crazier.

• ETH is flirting with its +1σ active realized price near $4.7k, which tends to be a level that tests conviction. Above it, blue sky. Just mind the leverage tinder. Tinder like stuff you use to start a fire, not the thing you swipe left and right.

Interesting Observations, Things To Look Out For

• The market didn’t show the classic young-supply blowoff you see at cycle tops. Young cohorts did not dominate over 70% like prior manias.

• Old supply climbed in BTC and ETH to levels that historically cushion dips and sponsor breakouts when fresh flow returns.

• Funding, basis, and perp skew for signs of tourists coming back.

• Realized cap shifts by cohort. If 1-3m swells without price progress, distribution is back.

• ETF net flows. Still the most honest demand barometer for BTC and, soon enough, ETH. 🎬

NEWS
Gemini Wants Wall Street To Love The Twins Again 👬 

Not talking about the Minnesota Twins, who are so bad they should come with a Surgeon General’s warning. The smoke over the Twin Cities isn’t drifting down from Canada - it’s billowing out of that dugout dumpster inferno they keep calling a baseball team. ⚾️ 

No, these twins are the Winklevosses.

They just filed the S-1 with the SEC to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker GEMI. Goldman, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Cantor, and basically half of Wall Street are lining up to underwrite it.

Gemini has the brand, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, a crypto rewards credit card, and operations in 60+ countries. They’ve been beefing up Europe too, installing Mark Jennings as head of Europe and Daniel Slutzkin as UK chief.

Gemini has global reach, a trusted custodian model, and a chance for Wall Street to bet on the twins without having to buy a rowing machine or season tickets to watch failure play out on Target Field. 🧢 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🤖 Autonomous AI Agents Are Learning To Pay Their Own Bills

Agents on-chain can hold assets, sign contracts, and even rewire their strategies with blockchain-logged learning data. Fetch bots negotiate deals, Bittensor pays for intelligence, and Solana bots crank DeFi plays with millisecond precision. Basically, a swarm of interns that never sleep and don’t ask for pizza. Kava.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending Protocol News 🏦

🐻 Berachain Doubles Down On Fat Bera Economics

Validators are getting paid by liquidity depth, not empty stake. Proof-of-Liquidity v2 pipes emissions into a BERA yield module and lets vaults throttle incentives with actual performance gates. Native BERA yield acts like a base rate, while apps can still boost liquidity when they need to. BeraChain.

👁️ Worldcoin Still Wants Your Eyeballs, Now With APY

You claim WLD monthly through World App, with Orb scans for max rewards or NFC-ID for the less creepy option. Tokens can sit in a Vault earning 10% APY, or get blown instantly on Mini Apps like polls, lending, or eSIMs. Referral rewards exist, but only if your timing’s sharper than your friend’s excuses. Worldcoin.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🦅 COTI Treasury Finally Opens Shop In The U.S.

Shocker: Here’s an example of “global expansion” that doesn’t mean everywhere but the U.S. COTI turned the lights on for American users, finally letting them dump $COTI into the Treasury and farm some on-chain rewards. Timing’s convenient with ETFs hauling in billions and Congress pretending they like crypto now. COTI.

🔐 Mantle Passport Wants You To Forget Seed Phrases Forever

Mantle and Para are pushing an MPC wallet where your key lives in pieces, never as one big “oops, I lost it” file. Social logins handle recovery, so users get one-click wallet onboarding across Mantle dApps without the cold sweat of 24-word bingo. Web2-level convenience, Web3-level control. Mantle.

🌅 Holochain Foundation Moves From Passive Steward To Actual Operator

Omg this thing is still alive - which is good because decentralization only works if the foundation stops cosplaying as a think tank. Their first Horizon livestream rolled out a roadmap, Wind Tunnel performance testing, and the new Unyt spin-off for mutual credit currencies. Maybe no more hand-wavy “someday” promises, time to build like adults. Holochain.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🧠 Prediction Markets, Community and Trust - The Future Of Alpha and News In A Post Real Time World

🫢 SEC Chair Paul Atkins teases private equity access for retail

🪙 Circle Mints $1.25B USDC on Solana in 7 Days, Hits $24B in 2025

👍️ WazirX wins 95% creditor backing in second restructuring vote

🔉 The great MSTR Ponzi scheme debate

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋