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OVERVIEW

FOMO Meter Flatlines, Bears Start Practicing Victory Speeches 😱 

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:

New In Three Sentences
Crypto News 📰

🇸🇻 El Salvador Bends to IMF, Tweaks Bitcoin Law for $1.3B Loan

El Salvador is reportedly softening its Bitcoin stance, making BTC a voluntary payment method to secure a $1.3B loan from the IMF. This deal could unlock an additional $2B in loans from other banks, but at what cost? Looks like even Bitcoin maxis can’t escape the fine print of global finance. Cointelegraph.

📈 Bitcoin Hits $100K, Crashes, and MicroStrategy Buys $2.1B More BTC

MicroStrategy swooped in with $2.1B to stack another 21,550 BTC, bringing their holdings to an eye-watering 423,650 coins. Say what you will, but Michael Saylor’s diamond hands could probably cut glass by now. Tokenist.

💼 Amazon Shareholders Want 5% of Assets in Bitcoin

A group of Amazon shareholders is pushing for 5% of the company’s assets to be allocated to Bitcoin, claiming it’s outperformed corporate bonds and could hedge against inflation. They cite MicroStrategy’s stock skyrocketing 537% in a year, subtly suggesting Jeff Bezos might want to take some notes. No word yet from Amazon, but considering their blockchain dabbling, this might not be as wild as it sounds. CryptoBriefing.

☀️ Florida Eyes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve via $185B Pension Fund

Florida’s Blockchain Business Association is lobbying for the state to allocate 1% of its $185.7B pension fund to Bitcoin, calling it a hedge against inflation. With crypto-savvy leaders backing the move and $800M already invested in crypto assets, Florida seems ready to become Bitcoin’s sunshine state (pun 100% intended). DailyHODL.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
How Low Could It Go? 🤔 

In last Thursday’s Litepaper, we looked at several cryptocurrencies utilizing the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system. There was one particular behavior within the Ichimoku system that we looked at: gaps between the bodies of the candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen. 📊 

Here’s what I wrote, verbatim:

“If there’s one thing about the Ichimoku system I really like, it’s how easy it is to spot when things have moved way too far, way too fast. The Tenkan-Sen and the bodies of the candlesticks are like an unhealthy, co-dependent couple.

They can’t stand each other at times, have explosive outbursts, and move away, but ultimately, they’re happiest when they're most miserable together. In a nutshell, the bigger the gaps between the candlestick body(s) and the Tenkan-Sen, the higher the chance of a price returning to the Tenkan-Sen.”

On crypto’s total market cap chart above, the gap between the bodies of the candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen has existed for over three weeks. In other words, equilibrium is out of sorts.

There are two scenarios that return the market to equilibrium. The first and least common is the time scenario. In the time scenario, prices consolidate and congest until the Tenkan-Sen moves closer (and higher) to the candlestick bodies.

The second and most common scenario is price. The price scenario involves, well, price moving lower to the Tenkan-Sen. What kind of retracement would that look like?

From the weekly open to the Tenkan-Sen, it’s a -20% drop. If that sounds bad, it’s not. It’s a perfectly normal and standard retracement in an expansion phase for crypto. 🧠 

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ON CHAIN ANALYTICS
WTF Are You Talking About, Arkham? 🙄 

Arkham might need a crash course on how calendars work. On December 7, the blockchain sleuthing outfit posted what sounded like a mega-bullish take on BlackRock’s Bitcoin buying spree:

They shared screenshots highlighting billions of dollars worth of BTC scooped up by the asset manager’s IBIT ETF through December 5. The implication? BlackRock’s appetite for Bitcoin knew no bounds. Except, well, it clearly did.

The problem? Arkham’s post conveniently frames “a week” as Sunday through Thursday. Using Arkham’s own tools, you’ll see the net positive $2+ billion worth of BTC inflows they mentioned are technically correct.

The number just glosses over that these inflows all occurred before Thursday. After that, the narrative falls apart.

By the time Arkham published their feel-good piece on Saturday, December 7 at 11:58 AM EST, the story had flipped. BlackRock ditched a jaw-dropping 60,560 BTC by Saturday. That’s roughly a 12% drop in holdings.

And if that’s not bleak enough, since the start of December, BlackRock’s IBIT holdings have shriveled by 177,350 BTC—nearly 36% of its early-month stash.

Maybe Arkham thought nobody would bother checking the follow-through. Or maybe they assumed we’d all forget that Wednesday and Friday aren’t the same day. Whatever the reason, their December 7 post feels like a party invitation sent out after the guests have already left.

I can only image that Arkham scheduled the post on Thursday to be posted on Saturday - because such a bullish post certainly does and did not reflect the craziness of BlackRocks’s selling - which is the highest ever for their IBIT ETF. ⤵️ 

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News In Three Sentences
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🐧 Pudgy Penguins Overtake BAYC, Soar to $772M Market Cap

Pudgy Penguins just waddled past Bored Ape Yacht Club to claim the second-largest NFT market cap, thanks to an 8.4% floor price surge and a new “Pengu” token announcement on Solana. Meanwhile, Ethereum NFTs are back in the game, raking in $187M. If this keeps up, CryptoPunks better watch their pixelated backs. Coinpaper.

🎮 RavenQuest Wins Big and Sells Out on Immutable

RavenQuest isn’t just an MMORPG; it’s Immutable’s golden child, snagging “Best Adventure Game” at the GAM3 Awards and selling out its land sale faster than a meme coin pumps. With Phase 3 rolling out global servers, NFT minting, and holiday-themed chaos, this game is redefining Web3 gaming while tossing some seasonal Grinch Goblins your way. Immutable blog.

News In Three Sentences
DeFi, DEX, and Lending Protocol News 🏦

📊 Aave Hits All-Time Highs for Deposits and Loans

Net deposits and active loans on Aave are breaking records, proving DeFi’s still alive and kicking while TradFi snoozes. If you’re not earning or borrowing, are you even in crypto? Just remember, leverage is fun until it’s not. Token Terminal’s X.

💰 Jito (Re)staking Fills $25M in 5 Hours—Because Why Not

Jito’s Phase 1 (Re)staking hit a $25M cap faster than you could say “Node Consensus Network.” They’re boosting Solana’s infrastructure with vault receipt tokens (VRT) and MEV tips fueling the DAO Treasury. Translation: staking is still hot, especially when you slap “re” in front of it. Jito blog.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Burnt Bag Briefing 🔥 

Want to know whether the bulls or bears are feeling the most pain today? Well, this is the place to look. 👀

In the past 24 hours, 500,022 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching $1.46 billion.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, an ETHUSDT pair valued at $19.69 million.

Longs lost $1.47 billion, while shorts were hit for $128.00 million. 🤕 

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

😆 Russia turns to bartering

🧑‍⚖️ Scholars Approve ETC For the Bybit Sharia-Compliant Trading Platform

🚿 Volume 212: Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report

✅ Benchmark sees even more upside in Bitdeer's stock after share price quadruples

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, WMT, COPI, LTC, LINK, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, DOGE, ZEC, AVAX, XLM, XTZ, and NEAR. 📋