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OVERVIEW

How To Buy Dirt Cheap And Dump the Peak 🧠

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Proven In Data: MVRV Signals That Outperform Buy and Hope 👍️ 

You’re about to nose-dive into two deceptively simple on-chain gauges that keep showing up right before big crypto moves 😱 

1. 5-Year MVRV – tells us if the current price is above or below what long-term holders actually paid.

   • Above zero = holders sitting on profit, party vibes.

   • Below zero = everyone underwater, clearance sale.

2. 3-to-5-Year HODL Wave – slices the supply to see how much is locked away by people who haven’t twitched in 3-5 years.

   • Rising wave = veterans hoarding, float shrinking.

   • Falling wave = those same vets cashing out on you.

Why bother? Because history keeps whispering the same pattern:

• When MVRV is low and the HODL wave is growing, the float is drying up while coins look cheap – that’s historically when rallies launch.

• When MVRV is high and the HODL wave is shrinking, old wallets are cashing out on the newcomers – tops often form soon after.

I ran the numbers for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, Cardano, and Chainlink from January 2022 to now (June 2025).

I measured what happened 3 and 6 months after each “cheap” or “pricey” flash. The cheat sheet below shows which coins rewarded patience and which ones treated dip-buyers like exit liquidity.

Read it, steal the signals, make better entries, and maybe stop donating profits to people who bought five years before you. 🫵 

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
MVRV & HODL Wave Analysis (Jan 2022 → Jun 2025) ✅ 

• Cheap zone: 5-year MVRV < 0 (price below what most long-term holders paid).

• Expensive zone: 5-year MVRV Z-score > +1 (price way above the norm).

• 3–5 yr HODL wave: share of coins that haven’t moved in 3-5 years - think “OG stash.”

• Rule of thumb: cheap + HODL wave rising = good odds for a bounce. Expensive + HODL wave falling = time to tighten stops.

Bitcoin

When the metric yelled “cheap” (three times), buyers who waited three months averaged +24 %. Six months? +42 %. When it screamed “pricey,” you lost about one-fifth in three months. Watch the old-hand wave - their selling nailed the 2024 peak.

Ethereum

Four bargain alerts. Half the time you sweated for a month, but by six months you were up a comfy +35%. Overvalued pings shaved -12% in a quarter. Rising OG stash has been a tailwind after crashes.

Litcoin

Permanent fixture in the discount aisle. Needed patience - first signals kept dipping, but six-month payoff still hit +28%. Pros used the 2023 halving rally to unload bags.

XRP

Valuation signals work, just slower and messier. The December-2022 long-holder exodus was an on-chain soap opera; price mostly shrugged.

Cardano

Cult-level holders piled in while price cratered. Those cheap signals delivered +31% at six months. Expensive flashes burned dip-buyers quick.

Chainlink

Textbook contrarian play. Every cheap print popped hard - best stats of the bunch. OGs turned one-year ghosts into hardcore holders, driving the supply squeeze.

What It Means Right Now 🤔 

• Most attractive: ADA, LINK, ETH – low MVRV and an expanding OG stash. Historically the best odds for a medium-term bounce.

• Wait-and-see: BTC – not expensive yet, but the old hands already sold into strength. Sideways or slow grind higher is more common than moonshots from this spot.

• Speculative bargain: LTC – cheap, but needs a macro tail-wind; past signals took 3-6 months to pay.

• Caution flag: XRP – close to the “pricey” zone while the OG base keeps thinning. In the past that combo lost an average 9 % in three months.

In A Nutshell

As of today (June 18, 2025) three coins are sitting in the clearance aisle with whales quietly hoarding (ETH, ADA, LINK). History says that mix usually pays the patient. BTC’s vets already rang the register, and XRP’s never came back – tread lightly there. 🚶 

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STABLECOINS
U.S. Senate Says “Show Me the Dollars” 📜 

The US Senate just rubber-stamped the GENIUS Act 68-30, throwing a $161B pile of “digital dollars” into Washington’s rulebook at last. 💵

What Shows Up In The Fine Print 👓️ 

• Only banks or federally blessed fintechs can mint a payment stablecoin.

• Every token needs a matching dollar or T-bill - no IOUs, no funny math.

• Reserves get monthly public attestations, and holders outrank other creditors in bankruptcy court.

• Big-tech giants and sketchy foreign outfits face high hurdles before they can play banker.

Next Domino 🀄️ 

The House Financial Services penciled a July 10 hearing before it mashes this bill against the STABLE and CLARITY drafts. Trump already posted a thumbs-up on X, so signature looks baked.

And Polymarket shows a 97% chance of a stablecoin bill being enacted in 2025.

If the House stays on script, stables get seatbelts, the dollar grabs an on-chain sequel. 🪙

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

💰️ BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund to become accepted as collateral on Crypto.com and Deribit

🤦 Crypto trader loses $15.4 million in 10 days

📈 Coinbase, Circle stocks spike double digits after stablecoin bill clears Senate

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋