OVERVIEW

What July, Q3, And The Second Half Of 2025 Might Look Like 🧠

Markets don’t take summers off. They just hide the shovels before burying or unearthing your bags. ☀️

Today’s Litepaper tees up a six-coin July smack-down: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink, Cardano, Stellar, and XRP. 

I dug through every July close, every Q3 mood swing, and the second-half sprints or faceplants that followed. You’ll see win rates, average pops when green, average splats when red, and the sneaky tells that July keeps leaking about the rest of the year.

If you need some great weekend bathroom reading, well, this is the Litepaper issue for you. 👍️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin In July 🕶️ 

Historical Averages

• Avg increase when green: 17.5%

• Avg decrease when red: -8.5%

• Overall July change: 8%

• 9 green out of 14 (64%). Upside hits twice as hard as the downside, but the downside still talks trash.

July vs. The Calendar

Ninth-best month out of twelve. It beats June’s sulking and September’s doom, but it’s nowhere near November’s fireworks or April’s sugar rush. Mid-pack vibes - the kid who passes the test, then pulls the fire alarm.

BTC In Q3 - Heads or Tails Quarter 🎰 

• Overall average: 6.5%

• Avg gain when green: 36.5%

• Avg loss when red: -23.5%

• Win rate: 50 % (7 green, 7 red).

• Best Q3: 2012 (+85.5%) - Europe panicked, Bitcoin didn’t.

• Worst Q3: 2011 (-68%) - first crypto crash course.

• Fun bit: July’s color called Q3’s color 12 out of 14 times. That’s a pretty damn good signal.

BTC In The Second Half 📆 

• Overall average: 108.5%

• Avg gain when green: 192%

• Avg loss when red: -42.5%

• Win rate: 9 green out of 14 (64%).

• Best H2: 2013 (+726.5%) - China and CNBC lost their minds.

• Worst H2: 2011 (-70.5%) - hopelessness after the first real bubble.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

• July has never gone red two years in a row. History leans bullish after a bloody one.

• When June dumps 10% + (2011, 2022) July’s average rebound is 48%. Traders love a clearance sale.

• July’s upside punch is roughly double its downside slap. Helmet recommended; payoff’s worth the whiplash.

• A green July matched a green H2 10 of 14 times - ignore that signal at your own risk.

Practical Takeaways

1. Watch the monthly close. July’s vibe sets Q3’s mood two-thirds of the time.

2. Red July? History says look for discounts - autumn rallies hit triple digits more often than not.

3. Green July? Ride it, trail stops - November usually throws the real party.

4. Liquidity dies in mid-August. July is your last active swing window before traders hit the beach.

Bitcoin’s historical data range for this analysis, August 2010 - June, 2025.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum In July 💻️

Historical Averages

• Avg increase when green: 41%

• Avg decrease when red: -12%

• Overall July change: 5.5%

• 3 green out of 9 (33%). When it runs, it sprints. When it trips, it merely scuffs a knee.

• Ninth-best month on Ethereum’s scorecard.

ETH In Q3 - “Green Half The Time, Bloodbath The Rest” 🩸

• Overall average: 1%

• Avg gain when green: 26%

• Avg loss when red: -31%

• Win rate: 5 of 9 (56%).

• Best Q3: 2020 (+59%) - yield-farm mania.

• Worst Q3: 2018 (-48.5%) - crypto winter kicked in early.

• Fun stat: July’s color matched Q3’s outcome seven of nine times. Decent barometer.

ETH In The Second Half 📆

• Overall average: 35.5%

• Avg gain when green: 97%

• Avg loss when red: -41%

• Win rate: 5 of 9 (56%).

• Peak H2: 2020 (+247% after compounding DeFi mania).

• Ugliest H2: 2018 (-74%). That one still hurts.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

• July’s three-year green streak (2020-2022) was the longest in ETH history. 2023 broke it with a sleepy -4%.

• Big protocol milestones juice July: 2020’s yield-farm frenzy, 2021’s EIP-1559 buzz, 2022’s Merge countdown.

• Nasty June prints (≤ -15%) have preceded double-digit July rebounds twice. Keep one eye on summer’s opening act.

• July’s upside beats its downside by over 3-to-1. Risk takers get paid, but bring a helmet.

Practical Takeaways

1. Watch July’s close. It has nailed Q3’s vibe 78 % of the time.

2. Green July? Trail those stops - H2 upside averages a face-melting 97% when it stays green.

3. Red July? Don’t rage-quit. Later-year upgrades (Devcon chatter, fork finals) often bail ETH out.

4. Liquidity fades in August. July’s your last real swing-trade window before beach season lulls the order books.

Ethereum’s historical data range for this analysis, April 2016 - June, 2025.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Chainlink In July ⛓️

Historical Averages

• Avg gain when green: 31.5%

• Avg loss when red: -22.5%

• Overall July change: 16%

• Green 5 of 7 years (71% win rate). When it’s up, it really pops. When it’s down, the bruises show.

• Third-best month on Chainlink’s calendar.

LINK In Q3 - The Oracle Quarter 🔮

• Overall average: 24.5%

• Avg gain when green: 47%

• Avg loss when red: -32.5%

• 5 of 7 Q3s close green - same 71% win rate as July.

• Best: 2020 (+116.5%) - LINK mania.

• Worst: 2019 (-48%) - everything hurt.

Fun truth: Every green July has led to a green Q3, and every red July has bled into a red Q3. Seven-year perfect scorecard. Small sample, huge signal.

LINK In The Second Half 📆

• Overall average: 44%

• Avg gain when green: 73.5%

• Avg loss when red: -29.5%

• Green 5 of 7 times.

• Best: 2020 (+146%) - oracle boom.

• Worst: 2019 (-48%) - the capitulation year.

H2’s payoff dwarfs Q3 because October loves to moon and December occasionally decides not to ruin Christmas.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

• July has never gone red two years in a row. Odds favor a bounce after a bad one.

• A green July has front-run every bull stretch LINK’s ever had.

• July’s 2020 rally started five weeks before Grayscale quietly accumulated - chain reactions matter.

Practical Takeaways

• Watch July’s close. It has called Q3 correctly seven straight times.

• Green July? Ride the train - odds say Q3 and H2 stay hot.

• Red July? Brace for chop, pick up discounts, wait for October heroics.

• Liquidity drops in August. Swing trade July, nap in August, wake up for October.

Chainlink’s historical data range for this analysis, March 2018 - June, 2025.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano In July 🧠

Historical Averages

• Avg gain when green: 22.5%

• Avg loss when red: -11%

• Overall July change: 8%

• Green 4 of 7 years (57%). Basically a coin flip with attitude.

• Fifth-best month on ADA’s sheet.

ADA In Q3 - The “Maybe” Quarter 🤷

• Overall average: -5%

• Avg gain when green: 37.5%

• Avg loss when red: -22.5%

• Green 2 of 7 (29%). Vegas wouldn’t price that kindly.

• Best: 2021 (+53%) - smart-contract euphoria.

• Worst: 2019 (-52.5%) - the post-ICO hangover.

Pattern check: July is not your Q3 crystal ball. Only 3 of 7 times did July’s color match the rest of the quarter. Read the tea leaves at your own risk.

ADA In The Second Half 📆

• Overall average: 22.5%

• Avg gain when green: 113%

• Avg loss when red: -45.5%

• Green 3 of 7 halves (43%). When it runs, it sprints. When it trips, face meets pavement with road rash that lasts your whole life.

• Best: 2020 (+118.5%) - the year ADA decided to matter.

• Runner-up: 2024 (+115.5%) - staking frenzy kept the party alive.

• Worst: 2018 (-70.5%) - meltdown season, nothing survived.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

• July has never gone back-to-back red. History leans bullish after a bloody one.

• Biggest July pops (2020, 2022) came right before protocol milestones. Dev roadmaps move markets.

• July’s mild reds (2021, 2024) still led to triple-digit H2 rallies. Don’t rage-quit too early.

Practical Takeaways

• Watch July’s close. It sets vibes, not guarantees.

• Big green July? Trail your stops - Q3 might still rug you.

• Nasty red July? Hunt discounts. H2 comebacks have been brutal… in a good way.

• Upgrade radar: Shelley, Vasil, Chang - tech milestones juice the month. Stay tuned to GitHub, not X drama.

Cardano’s historical data range for this analysis, January 2018 - June, 2025.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Stellar In July 🌟

Historical Averages

• Avg gain when green: 23.5%

• Avg loss when red: -29.5%

• Overall July change: 10%

• Green 6 of 8 years (75% win rate). When it’s red, it wrecks. When it’s green, it flexes.

• July ranks 7th out of 12 for average performance.

Q3 - XLM’s Coin-Toss Quarter 🪙

• Overall average: 0.5% (basically flatlined)

• Avg gain when green: 14.5%

• Avg loss when red: -42%

• Green 6 of 8 Q3s - same 75% win rate as July.

• Best: 2018 (+40.5%) - summer of alt rehabs.

• Worst: 2019 (-47%) - gravity check.

Pattern watch: Every July has called Q3’s color eight years straight. Green July → green Q3. Red July → red Q3. Zero misses so far.

XLM In The Second Half 📆

• Overall average: 134.5%

• Avg gain when green: 244.5%

• Avg loss when red: -49%

• Green 5 of 8 halves (62.5%).

• Best: 2017 (+610.5%) - ICO mania, rockets everywhere.

• Runner-up: 2024 (+432.5%) - AI, ETFs, pick your narrative.

• Worst: 2019 (-74.5%) - capitulation nation.

November alone does half the lifting - note the 87% average pop.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

• July never bleeds twice in a row. Odds lean bullish after a bad one.

• Perfect predictor: July’s direction matched Q3 every single year.

• Whales love winter: Big H2 gains cluster around cycle tops (2017, 2024).

• June’s hangover matters: The nastier June is, the bigger July’s rebound tends to be.

Practical Takeaways

• Watch July’s close. It’s your Q3 crystal ball.

• Green July? Ride it, but keep one eye on August liquidity drops.

• Red July? Sharpen the knives - discounts ahead, maybe an October rescue.

• Mind November. Stellar’s secret weapon.

Stellar’s historical data range for this analysis, March 2017 - June, 2025.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP In July 🌊

Historical Averages

• Avg increase when green: 29%

• Avg decrease when red: -18%

• Overall July change: 5.5%

• Five green out of ten (50% win rate). Upside hits harder than the downside, but the downside still stings.

• Eighth-best month on XRP’s sheet.

XRP In Q3 - “Mostly Green, Occasionally Gutting” ✂️

• Overall average: 16.5%

• Avg gain when green: 33%

• Avg loss when red: -50.5%

• Win rate: 8 of 10 quarters (80%) land green.

• Best Q3: 2022 (+47%) - Hinman e-mails dropped.

• Worst Q3: 2015 (-61.5%) - nobody left to sell, but they sold anyway.

• Signal: July’s color matched Q3’s color seven out of ten times. Decent tell, not Gospel.

XRP In The Second Half 📆

• Overall average: 119%

• Avg gain when green: 187.5%

• Avg loss when red: -41.5%

• Win rate: 7 of 10 halves (70%) finish green.

• Best H2: 2017 (+760%) - retail mania met kimchi premium.

• Worst H2: 2019 (-62%) - escrow jokes everywhere.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

• Five-year green streak: 2020-2024.

• Red-run omen: The 2015-2019 string of red Julys preceded every capitulation low of that cycle. Pain before gain.

• Volatility skew: Average green July is 1.6× bigger than the average red move- upside dominates, downside is quicker.

• June hangover trick: A brutal June (-15% or worse) has historically doubled July’s bounce (see 2018 and 2020). Watch the warm-up.

Practical Takeaways

1. Mind July’s close. Green July tilts Q3 bullish 70% of the time.

2. Red July? Expect chop, shop discounts, and keep one eye on November’s magic.

3. Ride the wave, trail stops. Average green H2 melts faces; missing that hurts more than eating a -18% July.

XRP’s historical data range for this analysis, February 2015 - June, 2025.

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