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- June Swoon or June Boom? 🤷
June Swoon or June Boom? 🤷
May ends and June begins, Peter Brandts epic BTC vs. gold analysis, and some monthly charts
Jonathan Morgan
May 31, 2024
OVERVIEW
June Swoon or June Boom? 🤷
There’s a bit of division in the crypto market today. $BTC is in the red by over -1.5% while $ETH is up nearly +1%. With the exception of Ethereum and a few other altcoins, everything else is in the red. 🔴
In today’s Litepaper, we’re looking at how Bitcoin has historically performed in June, along with a rundown of how Q2 historically performs.
Also on deck: Peter Brandt’s epic BTC vs. gold analysis and a look at the monthly charts of Ethereum, Tellor, Jasmy, and the Altcoin Coin market cap charts.
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:
And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:
ANALYSIS
June: An Analysis 📊
June brings summer vibes and, occasionally, some hot gains in the crypto scene. Historically, Bitcoin's performance in June has been mixed. Let's dive into how Bitcoin has behaved in June and its significance as Q2's grand finale. 🎹
Average Performance:
Highs and Lows: June averages a gain of 28.27%. Despite fluctuations, it often caps off Q2 with strong performance.
Average Up: 28.27%, 4th among all months.
Average Down: -17.38%, 8th for least severe losses.
Overall Ranking: 10th among all months.
Green vs. Red Junes:
Green Junes (Positive Gains): 8
Red Junes (Negative Losses): 5
Q2: The Quarter of Gains
June is the final month of Q2, and Q2 is historically a strong quarter for Bitcoin. Let's break down the entire quarter's performance. 🧠
April: The Springboard
Highs and Lows: April kicks off Q2 with an average gain of 57.87%, rebounding from the winter slump.
Average Up: 57.87%, 2nd highest month.
Average Down: -7.49%, least severe among all months.
Overall Ranking: 1st, the best month for Bitcoin.
April 2024: Definitely not a good month. Down -15% and snapping a seventh month winning streak.
May: The Middle Child
Highs and Lows: May continues the momentum with an average gain of 50.62%.
Average Up: 50.62%, 3rd among all months.
Average Down: -14.46%, 5th for least severe losses.
Overall Ranking: 4th, indicating strong but volatile performance.
May 2024: Unless something dramatic happens, May will close roughly +11% higher for the month.
Q2 Highlights
Consistent Gains: Q2 boasts the highest average gains across all quarters. With April and May leading the charge.
Low Volatility: Despite notable dips, Q2's losses are generally more manageable compared to other quarters, making it an attractive period for investors.
Average Performance: Q2 holds an average overall performance of 22.64%, the best quarter for Bitcoin investments. 💵
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Altcoin Monthly Charts
We need to start off this article with $ETH’s monthly chart. Good golly Miss Molly that is one hell of a strong looking candlestick for May.
ETHUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.
The bullish engulfing candlestick is one of strongest Japanese candlestick patterns out there. In fact, that are some traders who won’t even enter a trade unless this beast of a pattern is present.
If you want to know why Bitcoin’s dominance chart has taken a big hit lately - just look at the chart image above as the reason. ✅
Tellor ($TRB) is another altcoin showing a similar setup to Ethereum.
TRBUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.
After fourth consecutive months in the red, bulls are about too close TRB almost +120 for May. And just look at the volume traded on $COIN! The highest traded monthly volume in Tellor’s history. 😲
$JASMY is another altcoin whose monthly chart looks very strong.
JASMYUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.
Jasmy has the same thing going on with its monthly candlestick that Ethereum does - except Jasmy’s monthly bullish engulfing candlestick is on steroids. 🎼
How does the rest of the altcoin market look though? Like this:
Altcoin Market Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.
The majority of the altcoin market looks like this chart, or worse. If there’s a major catalyst within the crypto space people are waiting for, it’s confirmation that the ETH ETFs will begin trading in early to mid-June. Will that pump up the rest of the crypto market? We’ll have to wait and see. 👀
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NEWS
Bitcoin to Dominate Gold Market, Says Peter Brandt 🤯
Get those buckets ready because this is the kind of analysis and post that makes $BTC hater Peter Schiff cry. 🪣
Veteran trader Peter Brandt just dropped a bombshell: Bitcoin is set to surge 230% against gold in the next 12 to 18 months. 🤑
Brandt predicts the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio will dance around before hitting a staggering 100 oz of gold per BTC. Skeptical? Strap in, because Bitcoin’s history versus gold shows he’s not just pulling numbers out of thin air.
2017:
Bitcoin peaked at $19,660 on December 17.
Gold was a measly $1,264 per ounce on December 18.
It took about 15.5 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin.
2018-2019:
Bitcoin hit a low of $3,120 in December 2018.
Gold barely managed to close 2018 at to $1,282. Nice try, gold bugs.
2020:
Gold hit an all-time high of $2,075 in August, driven by investor panic over recession and inflation.
Bitcoin was chilling around $12,480 during the same period. Cool as a cucumber. Still outperforming gold.
2022:
Both assets had a rough year but managed to rebound in 2023.
2023:
Bitcoin gains +155%. Moving from $16,528 to end 2023 at $42,241.
May 2024:
Gold reached a new all-time high of about $2,449 per ounce. Cute.
Bitcoin rocketed to $74,000 before settling at $67,210. Now we’re talking.
It currently takes around 29 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. Ouch, Schiff.
If Brandt’s prediction might seem far-fetched, just remember, he’s been at the trading and analysis game before some of you were even developing eyelids.
Oh, and as of writing this post, Schiff has not responded to Brandt. 💪
NEWS
Crypto News In Three Sentences 📰
⚖️ Nym CEO Slams Tornado Cash Sentence
Nym CEO, Harry Halpin, criticized the sentence of Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev as "radically unfair and unreasonable." Pertsev received over five years in prison for enabling money laundering through his privacy tool. Halpin argues that this sets a dangerous precedent against privacy rights in crypto. Cointelegraph has more.
🌍 SEC's Peirce Proposes US-UK Digital Sandbox
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce proposed a shared US-UK digital securities sandbox. This initiative aims to create a regulatory environment for digital securities, allowing firms to operate under the same conditions in both countries. Peirce believes it will foster innovation and cross-border collaboration in the crypto space. From CryptoSlate.
🕵️♂️ US DOJ Arrests Man for $130M Botnet Scam
The US Department of Justice arrested Yunhe Wang for allegedly running a $130 million botnet scam. Wang is accused of using a sophisticated network of bots to commit various cybercrimes, including crypto fraud. This arrest is part of ongoing efforts to crack down on cybercriminals in the crypto space. Full story at CryptoNews.
🚨 Turkey Detains 127 in Major Crypto Bust
Turkish authorities detained 127 suspects in a massive crypto operation crackdown. The operation targeted individuals involved in illicit crypto activities, including money laundering and fraud. This marks one of Turkey's largest enforcement actions in the crypto sector to date. More from Bitcoinist.
🛑 Senators Demand Update on Crypto's Role in Drug Markets
Senators Cassidy and Warren are pressing for an update on efforts to combat the illicit use of crypto in drug markets. They've raised concerns about the role of cryptocurrencies in facilitating illegal drug transactions. Their demand highlights ongoing regulatory scrutiny over crypto's darker uses. From Senator Cassidy.
📜 BlackRock Tweaks Ethereum ETF Application
BlackRock amended its Ethereum ETF application amid growing anticipation for regulatory approval. The updates aim to align with the latest SEC requirements for digital asset securities. This move signals BlackRock's continued push to launch a mainstream Ethereum investment vehicle. Yahoo!Finance has more.
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