OVERVIEW

Last Time Ethereum Was This Oversold, It Ripped 📈

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN ANALYTICS
There’s Oversold, And Then There’s Whatever This Black Hole Of Bad Decisions Is 😨 

Ethereum’s 90-day MVRV ratio is flashing warning signs for bulls, as it continues its downward trajectory, currently sitting in negative territory. For a long-ass time. ⏲️ 

MVRV < 1 (Loss Zone) 👎️ 

• Ethereum’s MVRV ratio has been trending below 1, meaning the average holder is sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, this zone signals undervalued conditions and often precedes market reversals.

• The ratio has seen multiple failed recovery attempts, with each bounce getting weaker. This suggests either capitulation is nearing or that sentiment is still bearish.

• In past cycles, deep negative MVRV values have corresponded with market bottoms. If this follows the script, Ethereum may be in or near an accumulation phase.

Crazy fact? This is the lowest $ETH.X ( ▼ 1.42% )’s 90-day MVRV has been since July 1, 2022. 😱 

But Here’s Something Even Crazier 🤪 

On glassnode’s Realized Price and MVRV chart, the last time Ethereum was below the realized price line (Blue) was exactly two years ago.

And.

The MVRV dipped into negative territory. The last time that happened was also, exactly two years ago. 🤯 

And this is what happened to Ethereum two years ago:

In a nutshell: This is the most overdone and oversold Ethereum has been in two years. For people who like risk, they’re frothing at the mouth to go long soon while those prefer a little more conservative strategy are probably going to wait and see if this is the real bottom. 👀 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

💰 Senator Lummis Reboots Her Bitcoin Act, Insists ‘This Time It’s For Real’

Cynthia Lummis dusted off her failed BITCOIN Act and is once again pushing for the US to stack a cool million BTC. The bill originally flopped due to politicians being allergic to innovation, but now she’s hoping Trump’s executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will light a fire under Congress. CryptoBriefing.

🇪🇺 EU Freaks Out Over Trump’s Crypto Love Affair, Cites ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Meltdown

European finance officials are clutching their pearls over Trump’s pro-crypto stance, claiming an influx of dollar-backed stablecoins might make the euro look even weaker than it already does. The European Stability Mechanism insists the only way to stop America’s stablecoin “invasion” is to rush out their beloved digital euro. coinpaper.

⚖️ Puerto Rico Man Ordered to Hand Over $12.6M in BTC or Get Fined $10K a Day

Juan Carlos Reynoso was given 24 hours to turn over 119.65 BTC, but instead, he pulled the classic "Oops, I moved it somewhere else" trick, which definitely won’t come back to haunt him. His lawyer tried the “he was busy with family” excuse, as if shifting millions in Bitcoin just slipped his mind. The judge wasn’t buying it, hit him with a contempt charge, and now he’s racking up $10K daily fines until he gives up the coins. TheStreet.