OVERVIEW

New Week, New Month, New Quarter 🗓️

It’s April 1, a special day, not because it’s April Fool's Day, but because today is the official start to a new week, month, and quarter. 🪖

If you’re big into data and stats, then today’s Litepaper is for you.

Today, we’re looking at how Bitcoin has historically performed in April and Q2. We’re also going to look at how Q2 historically performs against the other quarters.

Here's how the market looked at the end of the trading day:  

HEATMAP
Total Crypto Market 🌡️

3 biggest gainers from today: Toncoin ($TON), Jupiter ($JUP), and Bitcoin Cash ($BCH).

3 biggest losers from today: Conflux ($CFX), Ondo ($ONDO), and Pepe ($PEPE).

Memecoin Market 🤑

3 biggest gainers from today: Book Of Meme ($BOME), MAGA ($TRUMP), and Memecoin ($MEMECOIN).

3 biggest losers from today: Brett ($BRETT), SLERF ($SLERF), and Myro ($MYRO).

ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Performance in Q2: A Quantitative Analysis 🤯

The following presents a detailed examination of Bitcoin's historical performance during each year's second quarter (Q2) over the past fourteen years. The evaluation is based on the frequency of positive (green) and negative (red) closes and the average magnitude of gains and losses during this period.

Frequency of Positive and Negative Closes

• Positive Closes: Bitcoin closed the second quarter in the green 10 times out of 14. This represents a frequency of positive performance at approximately 71.43%.

• Negative Closes: Conversely, Bitcoin ended Q2 in the red on 4 occasions, translating to a frequency of negative performance at 28.57%.

Average Magnitude of Gains and Losses

• Average Gains: During quarters that closed positively, Bitcoin experienced an average gain of 52.36%.

• Average Losses: For quarters that closed negatively, the average loss recorded was -34.76%.

ANALYSIS
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance In April ☔

1. Bitcoin has closed in the green 9 times.

2. Bitcoin’s average gain is +57.87%.

3. Bitcoin has closed in the red 4 times.

4. Bitcoin’s average loss is -7.49%.

ANALYSIS
Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin's Quarterly Performance 🧠

Incorporating a comprehensive comparison of Bitcoin's Q2 performance relative to other quarters regarding gains, losses, and the frequency of positive (green) and negative (red) closes, we refine our analysis to provide a detailed ranking within these metrics.

This approach offers a clearer view of Q2's standing amidst the broader annual performance trends of Bitcoin.

Ranking by Frequency of Positive Closes

1. Q2: Leads with 10 out of 14 periods closing in green, translating to a 71.43% positivity rate.

2. Q4: Follows with 9 green closes.

3. Q1: Also has 9 green closes, on par with Q4.

4. Q3: Exhibits a balanced performance with 7 green and 7 red closes..

Ranking by Frequency of Negative Closes

1. Q3: With an even split between 7 green and 7 red closes, Q3 shares the top position for the most frequent negative closes.

2. Q1: Closed in the red 6 out of 14.

3. Q4: Closed in the red 5 out of 14 times.

4. Q2: Demonstrates the least frequency of negative closes, with only 4 periods ending in red.

Ranking by Average Gains

1. Q4: Stands out with the highest average gains at +90.71%.

2. Q2: Ranks second with average gains of 52.36%, highlighting its strong performance during the spring-summer transition.

3. Q3: It comes in third, with average gains of 42.21%.

4. Q1: This is the least remarkable in terms of gains, with an average increase of 32.28%.

Ranking by Average Losses

1. Q3: Exhibits the lowest average losses at -16.86%.

2. Q1: Follows with an average loss of -21.22%.

3. Q4: Presents an average loss of -22.27%.

4. Q2: Records the highest average losses at -34.76%, indicating that its infrequent negative closes are notably impactful.

NFTs
Top NFT Sales 🥊

CryptoPunks and the wrapped version still hold the majority. There’s a slight dip in the average. daily volume, but still higher than the last few months.

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RECAP
News In Three Sentences 📰

🇦🇷 Hot then cold: Argentina's excitement over adopting Bitcoin under Javier Milei's leadership has cooled due to new FATF compliance measures. Milei's government introduced mandatory crypto firm registration to combat money laundering, diverging from earlier Bitcoin-friendly gestures. More from DailyCoin.

🔓 Could be worse: PeckShield's latest report reveals a recovery of approximately $98.8 million from March's crypto hacks, despite $336.3 million lost to cyber theft in Q1. The report's findings on the decline in hacking incidents, yet substantial losses, highlight the persistent threat of cyberattacks within the crypto space. From CryptoNews.

💼 More added to bags: Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has reportedly added nearly 8,889 Bitcoin to its holdings in the first quarter, now totaling around 75,000 tokens. This acquisition, valued at approximately $5.2 billion, reflects a growing trend of major crypto entities investing in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. CoinDesk has more.

📜 No, seriously, didn’t intend to: Justin Sun has filed a memorandum in a US court claiming his ICOs for Tron and BitTorrent were not intended for US investors, despite significant American online presence and celebrity endorsements. Sun's legal team argues against the SEC's lawsuit, which accuses him of targeting US investors with unregistered securities. Full story from Protos.

Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🥂 NFTs are like nightclubs, crypto’s a volatile religion: NFTStats, NFT Collector

📓 XRP Ledger Hits Historic Milestone of 87 Million Ledgers: Details

🤣 April Fools 2024: All of This Year's Best Video Game Jokes

🏦 BofA Boosts Micron’s PT to $144 Amid AI-Driven HBM Demand Surge

🚨 Sam Bankman-Fried speaks from prison for the first time: ‘I'm haunted, every day, by what was lost.’

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