OVERVIEW

Rally Taking A Breather

When CPI data came out today, crypto did a little slide to the south, but it’s spent the rest of the slowly retracing the losses. ⤵️

Nothing goes up forever, and sometimes everyone needs a breather. Or to take profit. Or both.

In today’s Litepaper, we’re looking at how normal deep retracements are for the crypto market, evidence of an upcoming sell-side liquidity crunch, and crypto news in three sentences.

By the way, if you've been following us on Stocktwits, you can now follow us on X @StocktwitsCrypt. We’ll see you over there! 🫡

Here's how the market looked at the end of the trading day:  

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Deep Retracements Are Normal

Picture this scenario: Prices go up and up and up, then they halt. 🛑

Then they start to drop. Over a few days, $BTC suddenly loses 37% of its value. You start to panic. Bear market?!! This is too steep for a pullback, isn’t it?!

Historically, -20%, -30%, and -40% drops in an expansion move are totally normal for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Stonks people couldn’t handle that. But for crypto people, -20% down is just another Tuesday. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stocktwits Sentiment Data

Out social data gives you a pulse on the market that you don’t get anywhere else. 📢

How are Stocktwits users like you feeling about the pullback today? Let’s look:

Bitcoin

Ethereum

If you’re unsure how this data might help you, check out the March 6 Litepaper and scroll down to How I Use Stocktwits’ Social Data Tools. It should give a pretty good idea of one way to interpret the sentiment data and the current price action. 👁️‍🗨️

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NEWS
Supply Shortage For Sellers Soon?

If the spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to accumulate like they are, sellers could experience a liquidity crunch in the near future—a really bad liquidity crunch. 🍪

Here’s what I’m talking about. It’s Girl Scout cookie season, so let’s use that as an analogy.

Imagine you have a box of Caramel Delights, and all your friends want one. But there's a problem: there are only a few of the crunchy coconut and caramel yummies in the box, and you don't want to give them away yet because you think they might get more special later.

Because there are not enough Caramel Delights for everyone who wants one, your friends might start offering you toys, more snacks, or straight-up cash to get one of your special Caramel Delights. This makes your Caramel Delights seem even more special and valuable.

Bitcoin is the Caramel Delight.

And if we look at some of the institutional $BTC hodlings in their spot BTC ETFs, their stacks are getting bigger and bigger. They already hold over 4% of Bitcoin’s supply and are projected hold over 10% by Q3 2024. 🧁

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CRYPTO NEWS
Crypto News In Three Sentences - March 12, 2024

🔍 Tether helps FBI: Tether has cooperated with the FBI and the Department of Justice to seize $1.4 million in USDT from a scam network targeting senior citizens. The seizure, authorized by a court warrant, is a significant step in addressing crypto-related scams, especially those exploiting vulnerable groups. From The Daily Hodl

🎩 Vegas For Dogs: Dogwifhat, a meme coin on the Solana blockchain, is rallying its community to raise $650,000 in USDC to feature it on the Las Vegas Sphere, with $372,083 already collected. This fundraising effort aims to boost Dogwifhat's visibility following its 500% price surge over the past month, making it a standout among meme coins. DailyCoin has more

🚨 Well, that certainly sucks: Incognito Market, a darknet site, threatens to release sensitive user data following an exit scam, demanding payments from vendors and buyers to secure their information. With over half a million order details at risk, the platform's admin leverages previously harvested data for extortion. More from Protos

📈 Miners Makin Moonies: Bitcoin mining revenue hits a record high of $78.89 million, with daily rewards spiking due to an "up only" trend in Bitcoin's price, reaching a new all-time high of $72,953. This surge in revenue and hash rate comes ahead of the anticipated Bitcoin halving event, expected to reduce miner rewards and potentially impact mining profitability. From Cointelegraph

 📊 Maybe this guy will finally STFU: The Crypto Patent Alliance (COPA) has accused Craig Wright, the self-proclaimed inventor of Bitcoin, of perjury and document forgery in his claim to be Satoshi Nakamoto during a UK high court trial. COPA's closing statements argue that evidence, including forged documents presented by Wright, proves beyond doubt that he did not create Bitcoin. Decrypt has more

🔒 Is it foggy here or just me: Roman Sterlingov, the founder of Bitcoin Fog, was convicted on charges of money laundering related to his cryptocurrency mixing service, facing up to 20 years in prison. The service laundered over 1.2 million bitcoins, worth approximately $860 million, primarily from darknet marketplaces. More from Coindesk

LET’S GET SOCIAL
Follow Stocktwits Crypto

Crypto-hodlers rejoice. We created a crypto-specific Stocktwits account to stay up to date with the latest developments in the space. Be sure to follow us on Stocktwits @StocktwitsCrypto and on X @StocktwitsCrypt.

Links That Don’t Suck

🎇 Solana NFT Marketplace Tensor to Issue TNSR Governance Token

🔥 Massive SHIB Burn Ignited As Shibarium Triggers Explosive Momentum For ‘$0.001 Shiba Inu’ Price

💸 Tether Expands USDT Stablecoin to Celo Network, Offering Microtransactions at Sub-Cent Fees

🇭🇰 Firms in Hong Kong Looking To Issue Ethereum (ETH) ETFs Before US Gets Approval: Report

👋 Payday CEO Is Gone After Game's Bad Start And Low Player Numbers

Get In Touch

Have feedback on The Litepaper? Email me (Jonathan Morgan) at [email protected]; I’d love to hear from you.

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