OVERVIEW

So The Weekend Sucked 👎

The blood bath that occurred on Friday and through the weekend has continued into Monday. 🛡️

Bitcoin’s halvening is just around the corner - somewhere between the 19th and 20th. We’ve looked at what happens to BTC’s price action pre and post-halving - but what happens to miners?

We’re discussing that topic today, along with rumors of a possible settlement between Ripple and the SEC and some historical moves in Silver.

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap: 

And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING
Just Remember, Deep Pullbacks Are Normal 🤫

During crypto bull runs, no matter the catalyst or reason, deep pullbacks are normal. 🧠

And for the altcoin market, the average dives lower are even greater than Bitcoin’s. 🤓

NEWS
RUMOR: XRP vs. SEC Settlement Incoming? 🤫

Ripple and the SEC might finally be tired of throwing legal jabs and are gearing up to shake hands on a deal. At least, that’s what the armchair analysts and keyboard warriors are saying. ⌨️

First, let’s discuss last week's big reveal—the massive $XRP escrow unlocks. This isn’t just a routine ledger update for those in the back. The unlock was worth roughly $300 million.

Now, fast-forward to tomorrow, April 16th. Mark it, circle it, underline it because it’s not just another Tuesday. This is the day when Ripple and the SEC are set to meet, a gathering ordered way back in October 2023.

So we know Mommy and Daddy had to sit XRP and the SEC down and tell them to play in the sandbox for at least an hour.

Putting two and two together, this is what some expect to happen at the meeting tomorrow:

1. They meet and play nice.

2. Ripple offers to settle for $300 million.

3. The SEC accepts.

4. The SEC is now free to wage its campaign against Uniswap ($UNI) and the broader market $300 million richer.

Let’s see what happens tomorrow. 👀

NEWS
Stablecoin Regulation Coming Soon? 🤔

House Financial Services bigwigs Patrick McHenry and Maxine Waters had a pow-wow with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. The buzz? They're itching to get some regulatory clarity into the Wild West of financial tech—stablecoins. 🪙

Some rumors suggest a stablecoin bill might be tied into some heavy legislative hitters—think FAA reauthorization and a cannabis banking bill. Why? Nothing says "let's get this passed," like latching onto a bill with a ticking clock. And with the FAA's clock set for a May 10 extension, thanks to some international eyebrow raises courtesy of recent antics by Iran, there's a bit more room to maneuver.

A Tale of Two Bills

While McHenry and Waters are busy drafting up something solid in the House, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand are doing a bit of their own scribbling in the Senate. They're all about giving stablecoins a nice, clear framework and ensuring consumers don't get the short end of the stick. 🤷

STOCKTWITS CONTENT
The Future Trends You Don’t Want To Miss 👀

We will be live with ARK Invest’s Chief Futurist, Brett Winton, to discuss what the future holds for your money on Wednesday, April 17th at 4PM EST! 🗓️

Save your spot here and reply to our tweet with the questions you want answered!

NEWS
What Happens to BTC Miners When the Reward Cuts in Half? ⛏️

Tick-tock, the $BTC halving clock is almost done counting down. The Bitcoin mining reward is about to get sliced in half—from a plump 6.25 BTC to a leaner 3.125 BTC per block. 🧱

The Miner's Dilemma: To Mine or Not to Mine?

Let's explore the life of a Bitcoin miner after the reward halving. It's a simple equation: fewer BTC per block means less immediate reward for the same amount of work. Miners must pay for their operations—think electricity, hardware, and the occasional existential crisis about electricity bills. With the reward halving, the pressure cooker situation is set. Will the lid blow off?

Scenario 1: Bitcoin Takes a Dive

Imagine this: six months down the line, Bitcoin decides to nose dive. Mining profitability would crash. Miners with higher operational costs might find the business as appealing as soggy toast. The smaller players could get knocked out of the park, leaving the big fish to dominate the pond—fewer miners, less decentralization.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin on the Rise

Bitcoin prices soar, reaching new heights over the next six months. That 3.125 BTC per block might look like a golden goose. Higher BTC prices could make mining profitable again, even post-halving. This could keep miners in the game, sweaty but smiling, as they continue to churn out block after block. The network stays secure, decentralized, and robust, just as the crypto gods intended.

Breaking Even

Costs for miners can vary widely, depending on nation and location. We won't know the exact break-even cost for miners until after the halving - but it's estimated to be between $39,000 and $44,000. 🎊

COMMODITIES
Silver's Surge Is Shocking 🌩️

If gold ($GLD) weren't making new all-time highs, the precious metals market's luster would be focused on Silver ($SLV).

Last Friday (April 12, 2024), Silver Futures experienced the highest traded volume since February 2, 2021. The price of Silver also reached a new three-year high of $29.905. 🥈

Despite these highs, the technical analysis reveals mixed signals. The Composite Index and Detrended Price Oscillators for daily and weekly timeframes indicate overbought conditions. However, the same indicators on the monthly chart show any bullish drive has yet to begin. 

Insights from the Commitment of Traders Report

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers deeper insights into the market positions influencing Silver's price movements. According to the latest COT report:

• Net positions in silver futures are at their highest since January 2021.

• Non-commercial traders (professional speculators and hedge funds) currently hold a bullish stance, with 72.85% in long positions compared to 27.15% in short positions. This is the largest number of long positions held by this group since June 7, 2021.

• Commercial traders, such as producers and manufacturers, have escalated their short positions to levels not seen since April 18, 2022, and their net positions are at their lowest since May 17, 2021.

The trading week also saw a notable adjustment in positions, with non-commercial traders adding 1,261 long contracts and 1,196 short contracts.

Moreover, the last week's closing price marked an 11-year high for Silver.

Analysts expect Silver to continue rising and catch up with gold's performance. Silver bugs (a name for silver investors who are bullish on Silver) worldwide believe Silver's opportunity to hit new all-time highs is just around the corner. Silver's current all-time high is $49.51, which occurred in April 2011. 🗓️

Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🥊 UFC 300 victorious fighter wants the $300,000 bonus in Bitcoin

⛓️ Crypto Hiring: Chainalysis enlists high-level IRS veteran

🎶 AI or Human? Music fans won’t care, says avenged sevenfold frontman

😒 Elizabeth Warren demands U.S. CFTC Chair explain his chats with SBF

🔫 Vitalik Buterin endorses one of North Korea’s favorite coin mixers, Railgun

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