Time Heals All Dumb Entries šŸ’“

Low and near-zero MVRV-Z scoresr say supply is tight and sellers are bored. That’s how quiet squeezes start.

OVERVIEW

Time Heals All Dumb Entries šŸ’“

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: finviz

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS
Hyperliquid’s XPL Thunderdome: 200% Pump, $130M OI Nuked, and a Whale Who Cashed Out Fast 🧨

A single wallet carpet-bombed Hyperliquid’s XPL order book and turned a sleepy pre‑launch market into a meat grinder for shorts. 😬

The Hit

At not quite the butt crack of dawn tpday, a whale dropped about $16M USDC into Hyperliquid and went long 3x on XPL hard and cleared the book.

Price ripped from roughly 0.58 - 0.61 to about 1.80 in minutes, a 200% spike localized to Hyperliquid’s venue.

Open interest cratered from $160M to $30M as shorts were force‑liquidated en masse. One wallet allegedly bagged $16M profit inside a minute and still sat on a 15M XPL long after the smoke. Another trader got auto‑deleveraged near the highs and walked away with almost $25M. All of that happened before XPL has even properly launched. šŸ˜ļø 

The Wallet Everyone Side‑Eyed

On‑chain sleuths flagged 0xb9c… as the chief instigator.

The kicker - that wallet has historic links that some say trace back to Justin Sun. Attribution isn’t proven, but the circumstantial trail is thick enough to stink. Also because he’s one shady SOB.

Cointelegraph counted four whales netting roughly $47.5M from the mess. One poor soul on the other side posted a $4.5M loss; another admitted to $2.5M gone on a short. Wealth transfer, but make it DeFi. 🤦 

Receipts: Who Got Hit, Who Got Paid

  • OI nuked: $160M to $30M in minutes - yes, minutes.

  • Peak print: $1.80 on Hyperliquid only. Other venues didn’t follow. That’s the definition of venue‑specific engineering.

  • P&L: lead wallet clipped $16M in under a minute; another bagged $25M via auto‑deleveraging. Aggregate whale haul $47.5M.

  • Retail pain: documented $1.4M, $1M, $2.5M, and $4.5M single‑account losses across posts and reports. 🫢 

ā€œWorking As Designedā€ VS ā€œWhere’s My Refundā€

Hyperliquid’s line in prior blowups has been clear: if it’s not a protocol failure, it’s market risk. During March’s ETH whale fiasco, they said the HLP’s $4M drawdown wasn’t a hack.

When JELLY was gamed days later, validators went full emergency - delisted the perps, force‑settled, and promised reimbursements. That saved the vault from a $12 - 13.5M hole but triggered the ā€œyou’re not that decentralizedā€ chorus.

Fast‑forward to XPL. At the time of writing today’s Litepaper, there’s no official compensation plan for users who got rekt in a pump that only existed on HL’s book.

If you’re thinking ā€œcircuit breakers, position caps, isolated vaultsā€ - yeah. That list has come up after every HYPE incident since Spring. The critique isn’t new. The lesson isn’t either. šŸ‘©ā€šŸŽ“ 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Market Balancing On That Awkward Line Between Euphoria And Shrug 🤷

The MVRV ratio compares a coin’s market value to its realized value (basically the average cost basis of all coins on-chain). When it’s high, holders are in profit and itching to sell; when low, coins are underwater and supply is tight.

The MVRV-Z score tweaks this by normalizing the difference between market cap and realized cap against standard deviation. Translation: it filters out noise and highlights extremes; the ā€œthis thing’s about to popā€ or ā€œthis thing’s cookedā€ zones.

Historically:

  • Above 3-4: Danger zone, rallies often top out.

  • Around 1-2: Healthy/neutral, room for upside.

  • Near 0 or negative: Market’s beaten down, potential accumulation phase.

Let’s dive in.

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC MVRV-Z Score

BTC’s perched above 2, creeping toward the ā€œoverheatedā€ range. It signals holders are sitting on chunky unrealized gains, which increases the odds of profit-taking pressure. Doesn’t mean immediate doom, but the risk-reward is skewed short-term bearish unless fresh inflows reset the balance. Historically, BTC rallies lose momentum fast once it lives in this zone for too long.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH MVRV-Z Score

ETH looks balanced - holders are up, but not euphoric. This is the middle lane where breakouts can build without much sell pressure. It leans neutral-to-bullish, especially if paired with solid staking flows or narrative catalysts. The big takeaway: ETH’s setup isn’t screaming overvaluation, so upside can grind higher if liquidity conditions stay supportive.

XRP (XRP)

XRP MVRV-Z Score

XRP is tiptoeing right below the cliff edge. At 2.8, this is the zone where rallies historically get chopped, because holders are sitting on enough paper profits to justify cashing out. Unless there’s a strong catalyst (court wins, ETF hype, etc.), this profile leans bearish. Think of it as a market primed for disappointment if new buyers hesitate.

Cardano (ADA)

ADA MVRV-Z Score

ADA’s in no-man’s land - holders aren’t underwater, but they’re not euphoric either. Low scores like this historically reduce sell pressure, since there isn’t much profit to lock in. That makes it mildly bullish, especially if sentiment shifts. ADA tends to sleep in this zone before surprising with sharp moves.

Chainlink (LINK)

LINK MVRV-Z Score

LINK is hovering just under 1, which is basically neutral. Holders are only slightly in the green, meaning there’s little urgency to dump. That opens room for upside if broader alt sentiment strengthens. In plain terms: LINK isn’t stretched, so it’s one of the safer bullish setups in this bunch.

Narrative Summary

  • Bearish tilt: BTC, XRP (profit-taking risk high).

  • Neutral-to-slightly bullish: ETH, LINK (healthy middle ground).

  • Quietly bullish: ADA (low-pressure setup, accumulation vibes).

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News šŸ•µļø

šŸ¤ CIMG Signs MoU With FLock For Privacy AI And Token Treasury

The Chinese coffee-turned-consumer group wants FLock’s privacy-preserving AI to power ā€œLifeNode,ā€ a health monitoring platform. They’re also eyeing FLOCK tokens as a treasury reserve, tying wellness recs to blockchain rails. It’s half Web3 wellness app, half corporate bet that coffee money belongs in crypto treasuries. FLoCK.io.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News šŸŖ™

šŸ¦ Tokenization’s Not All Hype - Stablecoins Prove It

Wall Street execs can chant ā€œRWAsā€ all they want, but the only tokenization with actual traction is stablecoins at $260B market cap. They’re programmable dollars that move 24/7, save people in inflating economies, and now back money-market funds like BlackRock’s BUIDL and VanEck’s VBILL. Avalanche.

šŸŒ€ Plume Says RWA Looping Works, If You Don’t Cheat The Math

ā€œLoopingā€ in DeFi is just borrowing against your deposit, redepositing, and repeating until your yield looks juiced. But RWA yields of 5% can’t support debt at 8%, which is like borrowing money at 10% interest to stick it in a 5% savings account - you’re underwater before you start. Plume claims its Nest vaults fix this by using RWAs with real liquidity and pricing that update often enough to actually make looping profitable. Plume Network.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News šŸŽ®ļø

šŸ“œ Axie Infinity Proposes A Constitution, Because Apparently It’s A Country Now

AIP-002 would formalize governance over the multi-million AXS treasury with rules for citizenship, voting, and councils. On Sept 1, players will decide if their pet-battling nation graduates into a constitutional DAO. So, a sort US Constitution but less pages and more emojis. Axie Infinity.

šŸ•¶ļø Decentraland Scams Rely On Copycats, Not Hackers

Most attacks don’t crack wallets; they just trick you with usernames like ā€œLunoB0yā€ instead of ā€œLunoBoyā€ or links that look one letter off. It’s the playground trick of swapping your friend’s lunchbox with a near-identical one and waiting for them to notice. The rule is simple: pause, double-check, and never type your seed phrase into a site that looks like it was made in five minutes. Decentraland.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News šŸ¦

šŸ”„ 1inch Swap API Powers DeFi Saver’s ā€œSuper-Appā€ Automations

DeFi Saver plugged 1inch’s API into its automation tools so users can boost or repay loans, shift collateral, or swap tokens at the best available rate. Think of it like hiring a travel agent who calls all the airlines at once, books the cheapest ticket, and handles your bags. $1.1B in volume later, the combo shows why routing swaps through 1inch is the difference between DeFi feeling slick and DeFi feeling like homework. 1inch.

šŸ“ˆ Arweave Sees 2021 Flashback In Trade Volume Spike

If this is just noise or the start of something bigger, we’ll find out fast. AR just posted its highest daily volume since the last bull cycle peak this week. Translation: the chain that swears by permanent storage is suddenly trading like it’s 2021 again. Arweave.

šŸ“Š Hyperliquid Hits $3.4B Spot Volume, Now #2 For BTC

Driven by BTC and ETH inflows, Hyperliquid logged $1.5B in BTC spot volume in a single day, second only to Binance. The DEX-turned-hybrid venue is quietly outpacing most CEXs in liquidity. If you thought perpetuals were its whole identity, the spot market says otherwise. Hyperliquid.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck šŸ”—

šŸ‘Øā€šŸ‘Øā€šŸ‘§ā€šŸ‘¦ The Sims remade in Unreal Engine 5 is everything I didn’t know I needed

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