OVERVIEW

What If You Sold VS. HODLed In August? 🤔

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ANALYSIS
What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

This is your monthly Litepaper that answers the question: What kind of hell will next month look like? 🤔

Today we are looking at the historical performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Litecoin, Cardano, and Monero in the month of August - a good mix of different assets with trading histories that are long enough to work off of.

Sifting through Bitcoin’s August track record, one thought wouldn’t quit: what happens if you cash out in August - then slip back in the moment September rolls around?

I was pretty floored by the results, and I hope you find them as interesting as I did. 🧠

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin - August, A Seasonal Red Flag Masquerading As “Just One More Dip” 🕵️

Historical August Scorecard

• Average return -0.65%, median -7.72% - basically flat unless you zoom in, then it bleeds.

• Best August 2017 +64.2% - SegWit finally locked in, bulls sniffed $20K.

• Worst August 2011 -38.6% - F.U. Mt. Gox.

• Volatility clocks in at 24.2% - tame by BTC standards.

Where August Ranks

• August stumbles in 11th place out of 12, a hefty -39pp behind November’s (best month overall) moon missions, barely +3pp better than September’s hellscape. Second-worst month on the calendar.

Green vs. Red Closes

• 5 green, 9 red - 33% win rate. Flip a coin, pray twice.

Stuff You Only Learn Here. Maybe. Probably.

• August shows a modest 0.45 correlation with full-year returns - decent but not prophecy.

• Event-months: 2013 +32.8% (pre-China crackdown), 2020 +2.7% (Covid & MicroStrategy entrée), 2021 +13.4% (ETF hype). Headlines helped, but not enough to fix the median.

• Spot ETF filing drama in 2024 still printed red - paperwork ≠ price pump when liquidity’s at the beach.

What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

• Classic never-sell: +1.73 million % since July 2010 - diamond hands win history books.

• Skip-August every year: +2.78 million % - about +60 % more sats.

• Dodging August supercharges long-term stacks. Bitcoin rewards patience, not sunburn trading.

Takeaways

1. August ranks second-worst for Bitcoin; historically a liquidity trap.

2. Big headline Augusts can pop, but median says sell the rip.

3. Hash-rate bounce and regulatory fear matter more than macro in August.

4. Data screams: sit out summer, stack more sats come September. ₿

Date Range For This Analysis: August 2010 - July 20215

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum - August: High Hopes, Higher Hangovers 🤒

Historical August Scorecard

• Average return +6.1%, median -7.4% - skewed by a single moonshot.

• Best August 2017 at +92.9% - ICO mania.

• Worst August 2018 at -34.7% - the ICO unwind dropped the mic on bulls. Really it was the whole damn ensemble (trap set, brass line, winds, strings, everything)

• Volatility sits at 39.5%. Helmet recommended.

Where August Ranks

• August drags in 9th out of 12, about -25.7pp behind May’s super-month and +12.9pp better than September’s gutter. Bottom third, borderline disappointment.

Green vs. Red Closes

• 3 green, 6 red - 33% success rate. Vegas keeps your ETH.

Stuff You Only Learn Here. Maybe. Probably.

• 0.85 correlation between August and full-year returns - bullish August, bullish year. Coincidence? Probably not.

• DeFi Summer 2020 clocked +25% in August; Merge buildup 2022 still printed -7%. Tech headlines don’t guarantee green candles.

• ETH options open-interest spikes every August since 2020 - derivatives desks love selling volatility into thin summer liquidity.

• Average gas fees run 22% higher in August (thanks, NFT season), yet price action doesn’t always follow. Utility ≠ token pumps.

What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

• Classic HODL: +33,232% since 2015. Early believers eating Wagyu.

• Skip-August each year: +31,417% - about -5.5% worse.

• Avoiding August barely trims returns. For ETH, summer slog is worth the risk.

Takeaways

1. August is a mixed bag: one blockbuster masks a pile of mud.

2. Green Augusts tend to front-run monster years; reds usually signal caution, not apocalypse.

3. Unlike Cardano or Litecoin (which you’ll read more about below), ditching August doesn’t help - ETH’s upside lottery ticket can’t be missed. 🎟️

Date Range For This Analysis: March 2016 - July 2025

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP - August Keeps The Lawyers Busy And The Bags Nervous 😰

Historical August Scorecard

• Average return +1.34%, median -11.36%. Hope meets gravity.

• Best August 2021 at +59.36% - SEC case got an unexpected bounce.

• Worst August 2023 at -26.76% - post-summary-judgment hangover hit hard.

• Volatility 31.9% - mid-range churn, still enough to ruin brunch.

Where August Ranks

• August drags in 9th place out of 12, a yawning -64pp behind December’s holiday moonshot and +8pp better than rock-bottom September. Bottom third, nothing fancy.

Green vs. Red Closes

• 3 green, 6 red - 30% hit rate. Vegas gives better odds.

Stuff You Only Learn Here. Maybe. Probably.

• August’s return shows a 0.62 correlation with the full-year haul - meh month, meh year.

• 2020 +8% August foreshadowed lawsuit-led carnage; 2021 +59% spiked on “maybe Ripple wins;” 2023 -27% proved headlines aren’t settlements.

• SEC noise or not, August liquidity stays thin - average turnover 17% below April/May. Price whips on headlines like a meme stock.

What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

• Never-sell classic: +206% since 2013 - rollercoaster but green.

• Skip August every year: +265%.

• Dodging August boosts XRP stacks 29 %. Not Cardano-big, but still pays for coffee.

Takeaways

1. August is statistically blah.

2. Data says leaving the August alone adds a modest edge. ⚖️

Date Range For This Analysis: February 2015 - July 2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano - August, You Problem Child 🧒

Historical August Scorecard

• Average return +0.49%, median -13.66%. Flat on the surface, ugly underneath.

• Best August 2021 (+110.35%) on Alonzo hype; worst 2018 (-28.13%) during the ICO purge.

• Volatility? 49% one-month - bring a helmet.

Where August Ranks

• August limps in 8th out of 12 months, a yawning 34pp behind November’s victory lap and 16pp better than June’s swamp. Middle seat with no legroom.

Green vs. Red Closes

• 1 green, 6 red. That’s 14% green vs. 86% red. Three-year red streak rolling into 2025.

Stuff You Only Learn Here. Maybe. Probably.

• August’s return shows a 0.78 correlation with the full-year haul - bad August, muted year; good August, fireworks.

• 2022-24 gave synchronized August pain across ADA, BTC, ETH, SOL - holiday-liquidity drain in action.

• Only August volatility >60 % came in 2021, right as testnet smart contracts dropped. No catalyst, no fireworks.

• Average August volume is 18 % lighter than peak months, so every order leaves a bruise.

What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

• Classic never-sell: +6.45% since 2018 - barely beats a savings account.

• Skip-August (flat each August): +67.68% - six face-plants dodged, 2021 moonshot kept.

• Avoiding August pumped returns 950% vs. blind hodl. Yes, nine-freaking-hundred percent. 😱

Takeaways

1. August is statistically meh - more red candles than Christmas.

2. Data screams “August detox.” Leaving the beach may save your bag. 📉

Date Range For This Analysis: January 2018 - July 2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Litecoin - August Hates You, Deal With It 😠

Historical August Scorecard

• Average return -0.99%, median -8.68%. August bleeds more often than not.

• Best August 2017 at +73.24% - pre-bubble euphoria.

• Worst August 2019 at -34.94% - halving hangover hit fast.

• One-month clocks in at 34.9%. Whiplash included at no extra charge.

Where August Ranks

• August limps in 10th out of 12 months, a hefty -21.2pp behind April’s spring fling and +6.3pp better than September’s dumpster. Bottom-quartile stuff.

Green vs. Red Closes

• 3 green, 5 red. That’s 38% green, 62% red. No two back-to-back greens ever. Streak odds favor pain.

Stuff You Only Learn Here. Maybe. Probably.

• August return sports a spicy 0.87 correlation with the full-year haul - when August pukes, the year usually settles for mid-double-digit gains instead of triple-digits.

• Halving years are brutal: 2019 -34.9%, 2023 -30.7%. Miners celebrate, price sulks.

• Volume trough: August turnover averages 19% lower than April-May frenzy, so thin books turbo-charge every whale swipe.

• Lite-vs-macro: Of the five August reds, four coincided with a rising DXY - dollar strength adds salt.

What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

• Classic hold (never sell): +2,781% since 2013.

• Skip-August every year: +4,436% over the same stretch.

• Avoiding August juiced returns by 59%. Sell the vacation month, come back richer.

Takeaways

1. August is a statistical landmine for Litecoin - double-check your stop-losses.

2. Halving hype doesn’t save August; it nukes it.

3. Dollar up, Litecoin down - watch the greenback.

4. Data says ditch August, then enjoy the other eleven. 🏖️

Date Range For This Analysis: September 2016 - July 2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Monero - August Is Basically a Money Printer 💵

Historical August Scorecard

• Average return +62.99%, median +6.71%. Outlier bonanza.

• Best August 2016 at +371.1% - dark-net demand went vertical.

• Worst August 2019 at -16.6 % - RandomX lead-up spooked hash-rate speculators.

• Volatility? 134%. Buckle up or blow up.

Where August Ranks

• August sits 1st out of 12 months - beats every other month by a country mile, +70pp above perennial loser September. It’s the Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods of Monero months.

Green vs. Red Closes

• 6 green, 4 red - 60% win rate. Not perfect, but when August wins, it dunks.

Stuff You Only Learn Here. Maybe. Probably.

• August return shows a freakish 0.99 correlation with full-year performance. Green August? Year ends gangbusters. Red August? Year limps.

• Tail-emission year (2022) saw a modest -3.6% August - network economics reset, bulls napped.

• 2016-17 privacy mania made August a liquidity black hole - order books vanished, price flew. Those two months alone inflate every average you’ll ever quote.

• Dollar strength? Doesn’t matter. BTC correlation? Weak. Monero dances to its own off-the-grid playlist.

What If You Just Sold In August? 🤔

• Classic hold (never sell): +1,068% since 2014 - privacy pays.

• Skip-August every year: +62%.

• Avoiding August nukes gains by -94%. In Monero’s case, the beach month is literally the alpha.

Takeaways

1. August is Monero’s statistical cheat code - ignore it at your wallet’s peril.

2. Outlier risk is real - 2016 and 2017 inflate everything, so trim your expectations (and position sizes).

3. Unlike Litecoin or ADA, skipping August is a wealth transfer - from you to someone smarter. 💸

Date Range For This Analysis: February 2015 - July 2025

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