Which Is Coming? Breakout Or Fakeout?

Charts on DOGE, AVAX, PEPE, and ETH and a crazy BTC murder-for-hire story


Which Is Coming? Breakout Or Fakeout? 

Green on the screen looks nice - but is there enough oomph behind it to continue? Who knows. It’s July, it’s summertime, and this time of year is the doldrums of trading. In other words, hurry up and wait. ⏲️ 

In today’s Litepaper, we’re diving into some charts, specifically Dogecoin, Avalanche, Pepe, and Ethereum.

Also on deck: a crazy BTC murder for hire story and a big collection crypto news in three sentences. 📰

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:

Tell Me What You Want What You Really Really Want 🔊 

Quick note here: Let me know what you’d like to see more of in the Litepaper.

More charts? More on-chain analytics? More data? Let me know! 🎇 

E-mail me here: [email protected]

Technically Speaking 

Let’s start with the charts and see what it looks like out in the crypto market today. 💹 


DOGEUSD Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge.

$DOGE’s weekly chart shows buyers stepping in as price moves closer to the 200-week moving average ($0.096). And for those of you who pay attention to time cycles, the 90-day cycle for Dogecoin is about up, so keep an eye for any dramatics moves over the next few days.

Also, out of the the top cryptocurrencies by market cap, Dogecoin has the most attractive MVRV ratio. In a nutshell, Santiments MVRV ratio lets analysts, traders, and investors see whether there’s a good opportunity to buy or sell. 🔢 

In Dogecoin’s case, the MVRV says the risk to enter a new position or to add to an existing position on the long side is extremely low. 🟩 


AVAXUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge.

$AVAX’s daily chart looks about as miserable as the any other major altcoin right now. The 50% Fibonacci retracement at $24.51 has been holding up nicely as support. Similarly, the 20-day EMA and upper trendline have been consistent resistance levels. ❄️ 


PEPEUSD Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge.

$PEPE’s weekly chart is very interesting from a time cycle perspective. It is now in its seventh week in a retracement lower. Seven days in a week multiplied by 7 weeks is fourty-nine days - what Gann called his ‘Death Zone’.

Without going into a metric fook ton of weird Gann stuff, Gann warned that violent and swift moves often occur within forty-nine to fifty-two days of a corrective move. 🐸 


ETHUSD Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge.

Ethereum’s weekly chart is either a major warning sign for bulls, or one hell of an ugly bear trap for anyone short.

Last week’s performance for $ETH was the worst since the FTX collapse in November 2022. The weekly close also put ETH below the 20-week moving average. However, the same forty-nine days cycle that exists on PEPE’s chart also exists on Ethereum’s.

Bullish or bearish, all signs point to some major, major price action coming soon. 👉️ 

Share your views on Investment & Trading!

Privacy: Your responses are confidential and will only ever be shown in aggregate after being combined with those of other survey respondents. 
The survey is being conducted by specialist researcher Investment Trends. Investment Trends abides by the ICC/ESOMAR International Code on Market and Social Research.  If you wish, you can review our privacy policy here. If you have any questions, please email us. 

*You can view the terms and conditions for the draw here

Bitcoin-for-Murder Plot: New York Woman’s Bizarre Scheme Unveiled 🔪 

A former spa worker from New York, Yue Zhou, has been charged in a shocking Bitcoin-for-murder scheme. According to prosecutors, Zhou allegedly paid $5,000 in $BTC to a dark web hitman site to arrange the murder of her lover's spouse. 🥷 

She even threatened to chop the intended victim into “a hundred pieces” and offered a neighbor sex in exchange for dumping the body in a lake.

The Deets

In 2019, Zhou supposedly sought a professional killer to eliminate her lover’s spouse, sharing their schedules to ensure the murder happened at a convenient time.

Her plans didn't stop there—she also allegedly paid to have her lover’s daughter killed and sent chilling threats like, “I will cut your body into hundred pieces… I know where you live. I watch you all time (sic).” 😨 

She definitely didn’t watch enough American or British crime shows because, well, if you’re planning to off someone you probably shouldn’t send text messages that you’re going to off them. Anyway.

When Zhou began to suspect the hitman website was a scam, she sent disturbing threats to the administrator, including physical and sexual violence against him and his family. She also tried to recruit a neighbor of the daughter, offering $10,000 and sexual favors to kill her and dispose of the body in a lake, saying, “I really don’t want to see her again.”

Additional Allegations

The prosecution’s letter for pretrial detention claims Zhou worked at multiple spas linked to illicit sex work. Zhou pleaded not guilty on July 8, and the judge agreed to pre-trial detention. 🚨 

Crypto News In Three Sentences 📰

🚨 Ethereum Jitters as ICO Project Dumps $100M ETH 

Golem Network, an old-school ICO project, sent $100M in $ETH to exchanges, sparking fears of a sell-off. Analysis shows nearly daily transfers of 2,000-3,000 ETH, causing market jitters. Golem says it's just boosting yields through staking, but holders are understandably uneasy. From DailyCoin.

💰 $6 Trillion Inheritance Set to Flood Crypto Market 

VanEck's Matthew Sigel predicts $6 trillion could flow into crypto from inheritances over the next 20 years. A recent Bank of America ($BAC) study shows young investors eyeing crypto as a prime growth opportunity, with aggressive investors allocating 14%. With $42 trillion set to transfer from Boomers to Gen X and millennials, the crypto market could see a significant boost. CryptoSlate has more.

🎭 HTX Plays Risky Games with Reserves 

HTX, linked to Justin Sun, faces scrutiny over its reserve practices and Sun's control. Sun denies controlling HTX but admits to being an 'advisor,' while stUSDT and other Sun-affiliated tokens dominate HTX reserves. With dodgy proof-of-reserves and shady asset swaps, users' funds might be at risk. More from Protos.

🏦 BlackRock's BUIDL Fund Hits $500M Milestone 

BlackRock's BUIDL token, backed by U.S. Treasuries, surpassed $500 million in market value, driving the tokenized treasury market to $1.8 billion. DeFi protocols and digital asset brokers are integrating BUIDL into their products, boosting its adoption. Tokenized treasuries offer a stable yield within the blockchain ecosystem, attracting more institutional interest. Full story at CoinDesk.

⚖️ Fantom Wins Legal Battle Against Multichain 

Fantom ($FTM) Foundation secured a $2.1 million judgment against Multichain in a Singapore court, citing breaches by Multichain's leadership. The ruling aims to wind up Multichain and appoint a liquidator to recover assets for affected parties. Fantom's legal win reinforces the legitimacy of digital assets in the crypto community. From Fantom.

🔄 Core Scientific Swaps Debt for Equity, Reduces $260M Load 

Bitcoin miner Core Scientific ($CORE) announced a mandatory conversion of $260 million in secured convertible notes into 45 million shares. Triggered by strong stock performance, the conversion marks progress post-bankruptcy. Core's shares have soared 194.2% in six months, eliminating additional payments to unsecured creditors. Cointelegraph has more.

Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

Get In Touch 📬

Follow our social channels for great, real-time content on Stocktwits and Twitter. And check out our YouTube channel for in-depth video content! 📲

Email me (Jonathan Morgan) your feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧

Want to sponsor this newsletter and reach hundreds of thousands of crypto enthusiasts? Reach us here. 👍

Disclaimer: Stocktwits, Inc. (“Stocktwits”) operates the stocktwits.com website and Stocktwits mobile device applications (the “Apps”). Stocktwits is not a securities broker-dealer, investment adviser, or any other type of financial professional. No content on the Stocktwits platform should be considered an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or any other type of investment or financial product. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍