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OVERVIEW

Who Has Room To Run, And Who’s Gotta Cool Off 🤔

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Keep The Gains Or Get Mugged: A Simple Playbook 📖 

Today’s Litepaper focuses on five altcoins read through two lenses: MVRV to see who’s sitting on profit or bleeding, and Ichimoku to judge if structure lets them keep it or get clipped. 🧠 

MVRV tracks unrealized PnL by cohort, so you know where pain got absorbed and where pockets want to cash out. Ichimoku maps momentum, trend, key levels, and timing.

Put them together and you get pressure plus path: who wants out, who can hold, and whether price even has room to move. No magic. Just crowds doing crowd things. 👍️ 

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ON-CHAIN AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum

• Structure: 30d sits north of the 10 line. 60d and 90d are through the typical caution band.

• Momentum: slopes rising across windows. That’s fuel, but it also fattens the PnL piñata.

• Crowding tells: multi window crowding at high percentiles. Classic “good news gets sold” setup if price stalls.

• Inflection watch: 30d slope turning down for a couple sessions, or a quick reset toward mid-single digits, likely precedes the next clean attempt. 🧹 

• Strong trend. Above cloud. Tenkan 4,140.38 first defense, Kijun 4,045.26 second, SSA 4,092.82 as structure. Chikou still clear.

Call: stall to shallow pullback first. Kind frothy looking. But hey, froth has a tendency to keep growing and growing. ⤵️ 

ON-CHAIN AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano

• Structure: 30d just flipped positive last week and stays barely above zero. 60d and 90d sit sub 10, so not crowded.

• Momentum: all three windows’ slopes are up. Fresh positive impulse without baggage.

• Crowding tells: no window near the overheat bands. Nothing screaming distribution.

• Inflection watch: 30d back below zero would be your first crack. A sudden sprint toward low double digits on 30d while price tags 0.89 - 0.90 turns it slippery. 🧊 

• Bias is long while above the Kijun at 0.810. Tenkan 0.800 as first touch buy. Future Kumo up. Chikou still in open sky.

Call: continuation favored. Let it breathe on Tenkan taps while the 30d MVRV is above 0 and slopes hold. 👍️ 

ON-CHAIN AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Chainlink

MVRV read

• Structure: 30d under the danger line, fine. 60d and 90d pressed near 20, an early warning that some profit taking might happen soon.

• Momentum: slopes up, but 30-day gain is minimal versus the 60d and 90d heat. That divergence often resolves by chopping out the late longs.

• Crowding tells: older cohorts are plenty green. That’s supply hiding in plain sight.

• Inflection watch: if 30d expands above 10ish without cooling and price stalls near highs, distribution usually wins the next few sessions. 📆 

• Above cloud, future Kumo up. Tenkan 20.389, Kijun 20.091, SSA 20.240. Chikou still has runway. Big gaps between the candlestick bodies and the Tenkan-Sen is a major ‘over bought’ warning.

Call: reversal risk elevated. Bulls likely prefer buys on disciplined returns to to the $2 level if the 30d MVRV holds above zero, not on strength into highs with hot 60d and 90d MVRVs. 🌡️ 

ON-CHAIN AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Litecoin

• Structure: 30d already above the 10 line. 90d through the 20 level.

• Momentum: all slopes up. Fine until they aren’t.

• Crowding tells: enough profit in the system to smack rips. 60d and 90d both look like they’re in a ‘it could go either way’ zone.

• Inflection watch: if 30d keeps rising while price retests recent highs, I expect sell pressure to meet it. Best mean reversion candidate of the bunch. 🫡 

• Above cloud, future Kumo up. Tenkan 124.65 then SSA 120.79 as structure. Kijun 116.94 below. Chikou still clear.

Call: tilt to range or fade-strength. Better buys live closer to Kijun after a 30d MVRV cool-off back toward zero. 🧠 

ON-CHAIN AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Injective Protocol

• Structure: 30d just above zero after last week’s flip. 60d and 90d mid to upper-7s; far, far, far from overheated.

• Momentum: all windows pointing up. Clean trend potential while near-term profits stay thin.

• Crowding tells: not crowded and still at a bargain. Middle lane that actually trends when price structure cooperates.

• Inflection watch: 30d slipping back under zero with steep slope into the negative would kill the bid. Otherwise it’s fine to press. 🎁 

• Long bias while above Kijun 14.128. Tenkan 14.252 first touch. SSA ~14.19 nearby. Future Kumo rising. Chikou still free.

Call: continuation with guardrails. Bulls likely looking at pullbacks into that 14.25 to 14.13 cluster as long as the 30d MVRV is above 0. Bulls are probably only looking to add if breakouts come with 30d still sub high single digits. 🤔 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🤖 Virtuals Launches Agent Commerce Protocol For AI Markets

Automation finally found a paycheck stub. ACP lets AI agents hire each other, escrow funds on-chain, and get paid after an evaluator signs off. Agents use ERC-4337 wallets and ERC-6551 IDs, clusters like Axelrod handle DeFi tasks, and fees route 60% to workers while 30% buys back provider tokens and 10% goes to treasury with USDC as default fuel. Virtuals Protocol.

🧭 Dexe Maps Human-AI Governance Into DAO Logic

DeXe turns HAIG’s trust-utility model into executable rules where decision rights, autonomy, and accountability move on sliders, not slogans. Role-based permissions, validator hooks, reputation, and threshold shifts make oversight adaptive by design. When your AI levels up, the guardrails should too. DeXe Network.

🏛️ Paxos Seeks OCC National Trust Charter

Paxos is trading a NYDFS trust badge for an OCC national trust charter to plant its stablecoin and tokenization stack under federal oversight. Assets stay 1:1 backed with dollars, Treasuries, and cash equivalents, while the firm keeps its MAS, FIN-FSA, and ADGM supervision. Compliance is the moat and the marketing plan. Paxos.

💳 Alchemy Pay Brings Fiat Rails To Reef Chain

Alchemy Pay’s on-ramp now lives on Reef’s site and wallet so users in 173 countries can buy $REEF with cards, Apple Pay, and bank transfers. The integration removes the tutorial wall for newcomers and smooths onboarding for devs. Less friction, more users, same chain. Alchemy Pay.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🏦 Re Brings Reinsurance Yield To Avalanche

Re launched reUSD and reUSDe on Avalanche so institutions can farm insurance economics without pretending they love degen risk. reUSD blends T-bills with delta-neutral ETH basis, reUSDe taps fully collateralized US insurance lines, all KYC/AML-gated and wired into Curve, Pharaoh, Blackhole, Ethena, and Pendle. Points program included, because nothing says “institutional” like loyalty rewards for underwriting. Avalanche.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

⚡ Skale App Chains Go Full Sovereign, Zero Gas

SKALE hands projects dedicated chains with instant finality and no gas so they stop blaming shared lanes for lag. StrayShot and Exorde already push heavy traffic with millions of users and hundreds of millions of tx while teams keep full governance. If UX still stinks, it’s not the fee market. SKALE Network.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending Protocol News 🏦

🔁 Carbon DeFi Lands On TAC Safe For Multisig Trading

Treasury ops just graduated from spreadsheets. Carbon DeFi is live as a Safe app on TAC, letting teams run on-chain limit and range orders from a multisig. Bancor’s stack brings MEV-resistant routing, recurring buy-low sell-high cycles, and adjustable positions via Protofire’s integration. Bancor.

🚄 Aptos Races Toward Global Trading Engine

Aptos posts sub-130 ms blocks and $0.00052 fees while shipping Shelby and Decibel to feed real-time trading. H1 saw stablecoins hit $1.2B, DEX volume reach $9B, RWAs top $723M, and Aave V3 approve its first non-EVM jump. Speed is the feature and the funnel. Aptos.

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